December Is Seldom Bearish                                                         Happily, the odds against the market falling significantly from 12/8 to 12/31 in a                           Presidential Election year are 18 to 4 if the period 1916 to 2004 is considered repesentative.                           In Presidential Election years, from 12/8 to 12/31 the DJI rose significantly in 13 years; it fell                           fell by more than a point in 4 years and in 4 years the change was a point or less.    In the                           four cases when the DJI declined in this period (shown in red) by more than a point,                           the next year always produced a bear bear market.                                                                                                          12/8               12/31                                                           ----------           --------                                                1916    106.50            95.00   WWI approaching,   Decline ended big advance.                                                                                             The next year brought a bear market.                                                1920       75.50             72.00  on going bear market. Bear market continued until August 2001                                                1924      113.30         120.50                                                1928      271.10         300.00                                                1932      60.10             60.30  on going bear market.                                                1936      180.60         179.90    bear market hit in middle of 1937.                                                1940    130.30           131.30    on going bear market                                               1944    150.50           151.90                                                1948      176.30         177.30                                                1952      283.60         291.90                                                1956      494.80         499.50                                                1960      605.10         615.90 on going bear market                                                1964      870.70         874.10                                                1968    978.24           943.75  bear market followed.                                                1972  1033.19        1004.21 bear market followed.                                                1976      963.26         985.62 bear market followed.                                                1980      933.70         966.30 bear market followed                                                1984     1163.21       1211.57                                                1988     2141.71       2168.57                                                1992     6381.94       6448.27                                                1996     6381.94       6448.27                                                2004    10494,23    10783.08                                                2008