BUY B1 - December 24, 2013   (C) 2013 William Schmidt, Ph. D.  www.tigersoft.com 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Buy on October weakness except in the Year after A
    Presidential Election which shows improving P-I and IP21. 

  
The weakness is defined by the Stochastic-Pct-D-20 being below 16. 
     There must not have been an Sell S9 or Sell S12 in the previous 20 trading days.

     The DJI must be between the 4% lower band and the 21-day ma.

   

DATA1946.BMP (1101654 bytes)

The Peerless Buy B1 always occurs in Octobers before the 28th day. 
Between 1928 and 2013, it averaged a gain of 12.9% in 22 cases. 
(As with all the reported signals here, second Buy B1s are not counted if they
occur within a week of a previous Buy B1.  

Only 2 of the 22 cases occurred in odd-numbered years (1979 and 1999).  None
took place in the year after a Presidential Election.  12 of the 22 were seen in
Presidential Election Years and 8 were seen in mid-term Election Year Buy B1s.

All the top five biggest gaining Buy B1s occurred in the year of mid-term Elections,
just before the November voting. The average Buy B11 in these years was a
whopping 23.1% compared to 7.8% in a Presidential Election and 8.5% in the
third year of a Presidential Election.


                      
   Mid-term Buy  B11s: 1928-2013

                                                      Gain
                ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              
19461011   B1  .093  mid-term
      19621002   B1  .622  mid-term biggest gainer 
      19861002   B1  .351  second biggest
      19901001   B1  .203  fourth biggest
      19901016   B1  .271  third biggest
      19941007   B1  .037  (tightening money from Fed.)
      20021001   B1  .105
      20021010   B1  .165  fifth biggest
      --------------------------------------------
                     .231

BUY B1s: 1928-2013

Date   Signal   DJI   Gain Selling
                     on next Peerless
                     Sell
-------------------------------------
19321014 B1    63.8     .066
19321027 B1    61.9     .099  P-I, IP21 improving
19461011 B1   168.0     .093  mid-term  (see chart above)  P-I, IP21 NC
19521027 B1   265.9     .098
19561003 B1   482.00    .022 

19601006 B1   583.60    .022
19621002 B1   578.70    .622  mid-term biggest gainer
19721018 B1   932.34    .124
19761013 B1   948.3     .038
19791024 B1   808.36    .07

19841010 B1  1177.23    .096
19861002 B1  1781.21    .351  second biggest
19901001 B1  2515.84    .203  fourth biggest
19901016 B1  2381.19    .271  third biggest
19921006 B1  3178.19    .101

19941007 B1  3797.43    .037
19991019 B1 10204.92    .100
20001016 B1 10238.79    .058
20021001 B1  7938.79    .105
20021010 B1  7533.95    .165  fifth biggest

20041018 B1  9956.32    .096
20081028 B1  9065.12    .008
=================================================
All Buy B1s          No.=22 Avg = .129
Buy B1s: 1945-2013   No.=20 Avg.= .134


      Presidential Election
      Year Buy B1s:


19321014 B1    63.8     .066
19321027 B1    61.9     .099
19521027 B1   265.9     .098
19561003 B1   482.00    .022
19601006 B1   583.60    .022
19721018 B1   932.34    .124
19761013 B1   948.3     .038
19841010 B1  1177.23    .096
19921006 B1  3178.19    .101
20001016 B1 10238.79    .058
20021001 B1  7938.79    .105
20021010 B1  7533.95    .165
20041018 B1  9956.32    .096
20081028 B1  9065.12    .008
-----------------------------
       No.= 14 Avg.= .078

     
Year before Presidential Election
              Buy B1s:


19791024 B1   808.36    .07
19991019 B1 10204.92    .100
-----------------------------
           No.= 2 Avg.= .085 


      Days of Month
1-10  .022 .022 .096 .101 .105 .165 .622 .351 .203  .037 .105
.165  No.= 12 Avg.= .166

11-20 .066 .124 .038 .058 .096 .093  .271  .100  No.= 8 Avg.= .106

21-31 .099 .098 .008 .07 No. = .069 Avg.=

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Peerless Buy B1 code:

         
For i = 50 To rn
              If la(i) / ma(i) < .92 Then 8870
              If (yr(i) + 1) / 4 = Int((yr(i) + 1) / 4) And mo(i) = 10 And                 da(i) > 3 And da(i) < 15 Then 8870

              If (yr(i) - 1) / 4 = Int((yr(i) - 1) / 4) Then GoTo 8870
              If da(i) > 28 Then 8870
              If s9(i) = 9 Or s9(i) = 12 Then i = i + 20: GoTo 8870
              
              If newipxxx(i) < -.2 Then 8870
              If la(i) / ma(i) > 1 Then 8870
              If la(i) / ma(i) > .991 Then 8870 
              If mo(i) <> 10 Then 8870

              rocer = (ma(i) - ma(i - 1)) / ma(i - 1): rocer = rocer * 250

If mo(i) = 10 And da(i) < 10 And newipxxx(i) < -.11 And opma(i) < -.23 And    rocer < -1.1 Then 8870

  7561 If s9(i) = 9 Or s9(i) = 12 Then i = i + 20: GoTo 8870

    For j = i - 10 To i - 1
         If m2(j) < 16 Then ok = 1 'M2 is Pct D Stoch-20
         If la(j) / ma(j) > .96 Then oky = 1
    Next j
 
    If s9(i) = 9 Or s9(i) = 12 Then i = i + 20: GoTo 8870

      If ok=1 And oky = 1 And m2(i - 1) < 20 And m2(i) > 19
      Then :pi = i:mb(i)=1:pi=i:s9(i)=101:B1ARROWS (pi):i=i+5

      If ok=1 And oky = 1 And m2(i - 1) < 10 And m2(i) > 10
      Then :mb(i) = 1:pi = i:s9(i) = 101:B1ARROWS (pi): i = i + 5

8870 Next i


Peerless - module 25 - PeerB1stoch
Stocks - Bsubs - B1SUp
       - module 18 - newb1 
NASDsignals - Module 10

                                         
========= 2012 Peerless B11 Signals
==============

DATA.jpg (96748 bytes)

21-Day A/D Line Non-Confirmations of 21-Day Price Lows at Certain Times

The New B1 occurs only in October and November in even numbered years when the DJI
is more than 1% below the 21-day ma and makes a new 21-day low which is not confirmed
by the NYSE A/D Line also making a 21-day low on its own.  New Buy B1s work out well
when there are November-December rallies in these election years.  Such rallies occur
because the partisans of the victorious political party, whichever it is, tend to celebrate
by buying stocks. 

Because A/D Line non-confirmations of DJI lows are an imperfect basis for buying generally
and because of the political uncertainties that can occur just before a Presidential Election
(1948 is the prime example of this.)  I would suggest waiting for the Closing Power to break
its downtrend for DIA and SPY after the first new Buy B1. 

I would also be wary of buying too soon after a completed DJI head/shoulders pattern.  
(See the 1992 and 2004 charts below) and I would consider a break in the NYSE A/D Line
uptrend to make a new Buy B1 too risky to hold.  Remember that between 1981 and 1990,
we relied on judged Sell S6s based on breaks in well tested A/D Line uptrends.

All these warnings aside, the  Buy B1 has a very good history. 

                             Buy B1s   since 1928

                                                                  Number of         Gain at time 
                                                                        Cases            of next Peerless Sell.
      >> Presidential Election Years                   11                       +    19.1%

     
Year after Presidential Election Year         4                        +    12.0%
             We eliminate these years.  Often the market declines in these years.
                   Examples: 1937, 1941, 1949, 1953, 1957, 1969, 1973, 1977, 1981, 1997 and, 2001


      >>2 Years after Presidential Election Year     6                         + 14.4%

    
3 Years after Presidential Election Year     8                       +     7.1% 
             
We eliminate these years because these years are usually strong.   Weakness
               here would show the year is acting out of character.
              
Examples: 1971, 1979 and 2007.


While A/D Line non-confirmations often work out at other times in the 4-year cycle, they can
fail miserably, too.  That is the reason we have not had a Buy signal based on the A/D Line
previously.  If we act on one of the new Buy B1s we should be aware of some of the glaring
failures of A/D Line Non-Confirmations to be bullish.   This should help us see that the
new Buy B1s need to be treated gingerly.  To be surer, we may want to wait:

        1)  for a second Buy B1.
                This signal's first occurrence for the year brought paper losses in 1944, 1948, 1976, 1984. 
                 In those years it was best to wait until there was a second New Buy B1.

        2)  wait for the minimum downside objective is reached if a head/shoulder pattern
        appears in the DJI.  (This is the height of the pattern subtracted from the point of
        breakdown.) 
                This was true in 1992, 2000 (when there was no Buy B1) and 2004.

        3) wait for the Closing Power for the DIA and SPY to break their downtrend-lines
        if there is only one New Buy B1. 

          Consider the reason for A/D Line NC (non-confirmation) of a DJI new low.

How can the A/D Line (the running sum of the differences between advancing NYSE
stocks and falling NYSE stocks) move in a different direction than the DJI-30 Index?
Here it is necessary to see that A/D Line non-confirmations of new lows occur because
the DJI is acting weaker than the NYSE breadth would suggest and this relative DJI weakness
may simply be occurring:
       1)  because of temporary weakness in  the very highest priced DJI-30 stocks, like IBM,
        which have much more weight in that index's changes, or
       2)  because a very low interest rate environment produces unusual demand for dividend
       paying stocks in the NYSE. 

In the first case, IBM's weakness may be symptomatic of what is happening to other tech stocks
in the NASDAQ, especially AAPL.  That is true now, October 21st, 2012.  In such cases,
the NASDAQ is apt to remain weaker than the DJI, but the DJI may hold up.   When the
NASDAQ was underperforming the DJI in 1988 after a Buy B1, the NASDAQ fell 3%
from the point of the new Buy B1 before advancing strongly.

In the second case, the low interest rate environment usually helps stock prices and
causes more economic growth, if banks, in fact, make more lower rate loans.  If the
big banks do not readily make low-interest loans, as now, October 21st, then stocks
can rise for a while because investors have nowhere else to place their money.  But when
this type of semi-artificial stock market bubble bursts, possibly because of lower
reported earnings by big companies, even the previously rising NYSE A/D Line uptrend
will be broken.  And that can bring a bear market even when interest rates are very low.
This is what happened in 1977, 2001 and 2002.  And could happen in 2013, too.
All this means that after a New Buy B1 we will want to watch closely the trend of the
NYSE A/D Line for any trend-break. 


=================================================================================

                                              Peerless - 2012 version

===================================================================
     Buy B1s Presidential Election Years
1928...1932...2012
===================================================================
10/26/1944  145.8   +12.5%   Sell S9  5/15/1945
 la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch  P^^     IP21    V-I   OP
 .988     .056       13  -20   72    .13   -28   0
 No paper loss.

wpe3422.jpg (59620 bytes)
---------------------[---------------------------------------  
11/14/1944  145.6   +12.6%   Sell S9  5/15/1945 
 la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch  P^^     IP21    V-I   OP
 .989     -.25       13  -32  -165  .076   -79  -.031
 No paper loss.
-------------------------------------------------------------
11/5/1948   178.4   +1.6%    Sell S12 1/7/1949
 la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch   P^^    IP21    V-I    OP
 .962     -.18       149  43  -165  .161   222  .146
 Paper loss = 4.0%
 The New B1 Buys here were already designated as Buy B9s. 
DATA4849.jpg (70826 bytes)
-------------------------------------------------------------
11/24/1948  173.4   +4.6%    Sell S12 1/7/1949
 la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch   P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .961     -1.078    78   -55  335  -.029   152   -.268
 Paper loss = 1.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------
10/4/1976   977.98  +0.7%    Sell S4  12/22/76
 la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch   P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .984     -.082      32   -8   60   .038    -1   -.174
 Paper loss = 5.5%
 The first Buy B9 has already been treated as a Buy B9
 The second cluster is not now a Buy signal.
DATA7677.BMP (1440054 bytes)
-------------------------------------------------------------
11/9/1976   930.77  +5.8%    Sell S4  12/22/76
  la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch   P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .983      -.271     -71   8   -131  .069    -3  -.047
  Paper Loss = +.6% 
wpe342A.jpg (57785 bytes) 
-------------------------------------------------------------
10/2/1984   1191.36 +53.3%    Sell S9  4/29/1986 
  la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .983      -.324     -34   -28  -60   -.14    -4  -.094
 Paper loss = 1.4%
------------------------------------------------------------- 
11/16/1984  1187.94 +53.6%   Sell S9  4/29/1986
  la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .983      -.324     -34   -28  -60   -.14    -4  -.094
 Paper loss = 1.3%
 These Buy B1s would be helpful additions. 
wpe3429.jpg (60428 bytes)

------------------------------------------------------------- 
11/10/1988  2114.31 +31.1%   Sell S9  10/4/1989 
  la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .984      -.066     -84   36   -143  .065    -8   .034
 Paper loss = 3.6%
 The Buy B1 here is also a Buy B17 on exisiting software.
 The NASDAQ was underperforming the DJI at this time.
 It fell from 378.40 to a low of 365.07 on 11/21/1984 before turning up.  
DATA8889.BMP (1920054 bytes)
-------------------------------------------------------------  
10/6/1992   3178.19 +24.8%   Sell S4  2/3/1994
  la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .984      -.066     -84   36   -143  .065    -8   .034
 Paper loss = 1.3% 
 The Buy B1 here is also a Buy B17 on exisiting software. 

wpe3427.jpg (59509 bytes)
NASD92.BMP (1920054 bytes)
------------------------------------------------------------- 
10/14/2004  9894.45 +9.7%    Sell S8  12/28/2004 
  la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .984      -.066     -84   36   -143  .065    -8   .034
 Paper loss = 0.1%
 On the NASDAQ chart, the NASDJI was very positive.
wpe3426.jpg (54464 bytes) 
SPY04.BMP (1132854 bytes)

QQQQ.BMP (1172134 bytes)
-------------------------------------------------------------  
10/11/2012 13326.39      
  la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .986      -.006      32   2     32  -.119    -65  -.086
 Paper loss = open
 
-------------------------------------------------------------  
       Number = 11  Avg = 19.1%
===================================================================
   New Buy B1s The Year after a Presidential Election Year 
1929...1933...2009
===================================================================
10/11/1977  832.3  -4.7%     Sell S10 1/7/1978       
10/17/1997  7847.03 +17.0%   Sell S15 4/21/1998
10/28/1997  7498.32 +22.5%   Sell S15 4/21/1998
10/21/2005  10215.22 +13.3%  Sell S9  5/5/2006
       Number = 4  Avg = 12.0%
===================================================================
   New Buy B1s in The Second Year after a Presidential Election Year 
1930...1934...2010 
===================================================================
11/6/1950   222.5   +23.6%   Sell S4  9/7/1951 275.1
 la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^    IP21     V-I    OP
 .986      -.006      32   2    32  -.119    -65  -.086
 No Paper loss 
------------------------------------------------------------- 
10/4/1962   582.4   +20.4%   Sell S10  7/1/1963 
 la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^     IP21     V-I    OP
 .982      .335     -114   35  -317  -.082   -595  -.017
   6% Paper loss ...DJI declined to 558.00 before rallying.
-------------------------------------------------------------  
11/30/1966  791.59  +12.1%   Sell S12  4/25/1967
 la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^     IP21     V-I    OP
 .981     -.241      16   -15   41    .078    3  -.082
  0.8% Paper loss ...DJI declined to 875.69 before rallying.
------------------------------------------------------------- 
 10/7/1994   3979.43 +3.3%    Sell S9   10/17/1994
 la/ma      21dma ROC     P-I   P-ch    P^^       IP21     V-I    OP
 .984      .342     -323  -9    -511   -.043   -50  -.188
  No Paper loss  
------------------------------------------------------------- 
10/1/2002   7938.79 +10.5%   Sell S12  1/6/2003
11/30/2010  11006.02 +16.4%  Sell S9  5/2/2011
        Number = 6  Avg = 14.4%
===================================================================
  New Buy B1s in The Third Year after a Presidential Election Year 
1930...1934...2010 
===================================================================
11/4/1943   136.3    +8.5%   Sell S2   6/21/1944
10/29/1951  260.4    +5.3%   Sell S1   1/28/1952
10/14/1971  878.36   +9.2%   Sell S1   4/6/1972
10/22/1971  852.37   +12.6%   Sell S1   4/6/1972
10/11/1979  844.62   -3.5%    Sell S10  10/19/1979
10/4/1991  2961.76   +11.6%    Sell S15  4/14/1992
            96 point paper loss. 3+% 
11/15/1991  2943.20  +12.3%    Sell S15  4/14/1992
10/19/2007  13522.02 +0.7%    Sell S12  12/6/2007 
            DJI fell to 12743 before rallying. Paper Loss = 6%
         Number = 8  Avg = 7.1%