BUY B1 - December 24, 2013 (C) 2013 William Schmidt, Ph. D. www.tigersoft.com
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Buy on October weakness
except in the Year after A
Presidential Election which shows improving P-I and IP21.
The
weakness is defined by the Stochastic-Pct-D-20 being below 16.
There must not have been an Sell S9 or Sell S12 in the previous
20 trading days.
The DJI must be between the 4% lower band and the 21-day
ma.
The Peerless Buy B1 always
occurs in Octobers before the 28th day.
Between 1928 and 2013, it averaged a gain of 12.9% in 22 cases.
(As with all the reported signals here, second Buy B1s are not counted if they
occur within a week of a previous Buy B1.
Only 2 of the 22 cases occurred in odd-numbered years (1979 and 1999). None
took place in the year after a Presidential Election. 12 of the 22 were seen in
Presidential Election Years and 8 were seen in mid-term Election Year Buy B1s.
All the top five biggest gaining Buy B1s occurred in the year of mid-term Elections,
just before the November voting. The average Buy B11 in these years was a
whopping 23.1% compared to 7.8% in a Presidential Election and 8.5% in the
third year of a Presidential Election.
Mid-term Buy B11s: 1928-2013
Gain
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19461011 B1 .093 mid-term
19621002 B1 .622 mid-term biggest
gainer
19861002 B1 .351 second biggest
19901001 B1 .203 fourth biggest
19901016 B1 .271 third biggest
19941007 B1 .037 (tightening money
from Fed.)
20021001 B1 .105
20021010 B1 .165 fifth biggest
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BUY B1s: 1928-2013 Date Signal DJI Gain Selling on next Peerless Sell ------------------------------------- 19321014 B1 63.8 .066 19321027 B1 61.9 .099 P-I, IP21 improving 19461011 B1 168.0 .093 mid-term (see chart above) P-I, IP21 NC 19521027 B1 265.9 .098 19561003 B1 482.00 .022 19601006 B1 583.60 .022 19621002 B1 578.70 .622 mid-term biggest gainer 19721018 B1 932.34 .124 19761013 B1 948.3 .038 19791024 B1 808.36 .07 19841010 B1 1177.23 .096 19861002 B1 1781.21 .351 second biggest 19901001 B1 2515.84 .203 fourth biggest 19901016 B1 2381.19 .271 third biggest 19921006 B1 3178.19 .101 19941007 B1 3797.43 .037 19991019 B1 10204.92 .100 20001016 B1 10238.79 .058 20021001 B1 7938.79 .105 20021010 B1 7533.95 .165 fifth biggest 20041018 B1 9956.32 .096 20081028 B1 9065.12 .008 ================================================= All Buy B1s No.=22 Avg = .129 Buy B1s: 1945-2013 No.=20 Avg.= .134 Presidential Election Year Buy B1s: 19321014 B1 63.8 .066 19321027 B1 61.9 .099 19521027 B1 265.9 .098 19561003 B1 482.00 .022 19601006 B1 583.60 .022 19721018 B1 932.34 .124 19761013 B1 948.3 .038 19841010 B1 1177.23 .096 19921006 B1 3178.19 .101 20001016 B1 10238.79 .058 20021001 B1 7938.79 .105 20021010 B1 7533.95 .165 20041018 B1 9956.32 .096 20081028 B1 9065.12 .008 ----------------------------- No.= 14 Avg.= .078 Year before Presidential Election Buy B1s: 19791024 B1 808.36 .07 19991019 B1 10204.92 .100 ----------------------------- No.= 2 Avg.= .085 Days of Month 1-10 .022 .022 .096 .101 .105 .165 .622 .351 .203 .037 .105 .165 No.= 12 Avg.= .166 11-20 .066 .124 .038 .058 .096 .093 .271 .100 No.= 8 Avg.= .106 21-31 .099 .098 .008 .07 No. = .069 Avg.= -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Peerless Buy B1 code: For i = 50 To rn If la(i) / ma(i) < .92 Then 8870 If (yr(i) + 1) / 4 = Int((yr(i) + 1) / 4) And mo(i) = 10 And da(i) > 3 And da(i) < 15 Then 8870 If (yr(i) - 1) / 4 = Int((yr(i) - 1) / 4) Then GoTo 8870 If da(i) > 28 Then 8870 If s9(i) = 9 Or s9(i) = 12 Then i = i + 20: GoTo 8870 If newipxxx(i) < -.2 Then 8870 If la(i) / ma(i) > 1 Then 8870 If la(i) / ma(i) > .991 Then 8870 If mo(i) <> 10 Then 8870 rocer = (ma(i) - ma(i - 1)) / ma(i - 1): rocer = rocer * 250 If mo(i) = 10 And da(i) < 10 And newipxxx(i) < -.11 And opma(i) < -.23 And rocer < -1.1 Then 8870 7561 If s9(i) = 9 Or s9(i) = 12 Then i = i + 20: GoTo 8870 For j = i - 10 To i - 1 If m2(j) < 16 Then ok = 1 'M2 is Pct D Stoch-20 If la(j) / ma(j) > .96 Then oky = 1 Next j If s9(i) = 9 Or s9(i) = 12 Then i = i + 20: GoTo 8870 If ok=1 And oky = 1 And m2(i - 1) < 20 And m2(i) > 19 Then :pi = i:mb(i)=1:pi=i:s9(i)=101:B1ARROWS (pi):i=i+5 If ok=1 And oky = 1 And m2(i - 1) < 10 And m2(i) > 10 Then :mb(i) = 1:pi = i:s9(i) = 101:B1ARROWS (pi): i = i + 5 8870 Next i Peerless - module 25 - PeerB1stoch Stocks - Bsubs - B1SUp - module 18 - newb1 NASDsignals - Module 10 |
========= 2012 Peerless B11 Signals ==============
21-Day A/D Line Non-Confirmations of 21-Day Price Lows
at Certain Times
The New B1 occurs only in October and November in even
numbered years when the DJI
is more than 1% below the 21-day ma and makes a new 21-day low which is not confirmed
by the NYSE A/D Line also making a 21-day low on its own. New Buy B1s work out well
when there are November-December rallies in these election years. Such rallies occur
because the partisans of the victorious political party, whichever it is, tend to
celebrate
by buying stocks.
Because A/D Line non-confirmations of DJI lows are an
imperfect basis for buying generally
and because of the political uncertainties that can occur just before a Presidential
Election
(1948 is the prime example of this.) I would suggest waiting for the Closing Power
to break
its downtrend for DIA and SPY after the first new Buy B1.
I would also be wary of buying too soon after a completed DJI head/shoulders pattern.
(See the 1992 and 2004 charts below) and I would consider a break in the NYSE A/D Line
uptrend to make a new Buy B1 too risky to hold. Remember that between 1981 and 1990,
we relied on judged Sell S6s based on breaks in well tested A/D Line uptrends.
All these warnings aside, the Buy B1 has a very good history.
Buy B1s since 1928
While A/D Line non-confirmations often work out at other times in the 4-year cycle, they
can
fail miserably, too. That is the reason we have not had a Buy signal based on the
A/D Line
previously. If we act on one of the new Buy B1s we should be aware of some of the
glaring
failures of A/D Line Non-Confirmations to be bullish. This should help us see
that the
new Buy B1s need to be treated gingerly. To be surer, we may want to wait:
1) for a second Buy B1.
This signal's first occurrence for the year brought paper losses in 1944, 1948, 1976,
1984.
In those years it was best to wait until there was a second New Buy B1.
2) wait for the minimum downside
objective is reached if a head/shoulder pattern
appears in the DJI. (This is the height
of the pattern subtracted from the point of
breakdown.)
This was true in 1992, 2000 (when there was no Buy B1) and 2004.
3) wait for the Closing Power for the DIA and
SPY to break their downtrend-lines
if there is only one New Buy B1.
Consider the reason for A/D Line NC
(non-confirmation) of a DJI new low.
How can the A/D Line (the running sum of the differences between advancing NYSE
stocks and falling NYSE stocks) move in a different direction than the DJI-30 Index?
Here it is necessary to see that A/D Line non-confirmations of new lows occur because
the DJI is acting weaker than the NYSE breadth would suggest and this relative DJI
weakness
may simply be occurring:
1) because of temporary weakness in the
very highest priced DJI-30 stocks, like IBM,
which have much more weight in that index's
changes, or
2) because a very low interest rate environment
produces unusual demand for dividend
paying stocks in the NYSE.
In the first case, IBM's weakness may be symptomatic of what is happening to other tech
stocks
in the NASDAQ, especially AAPL. That is true now, October 21st, 2012. In such
cases,
the NASDAQ is apt to remain weaker than the DJI, but the DJI may hold up. When
the
NASDAQ was underperforming the DJI in 1988 after a Buy B1, the NASDAQ fell 3%
from the point of the new Buy B1 before advancing strongly.
In the second case, the low interest rate environment usually helps stock prices and
causes more economic growth, if banks, in fact, make more lower rate loans. If the
big banks do not readily make low-interest loans, as now, October 21st, then stocks
can rise for a while because investors have nowhere else to place their money. But
when
this type of semi-artificial stock market bubble bursts, possibly because of lower
reported earnings by big companies, even the previously rising NYSE A/D Line uptrend
will be broken. And that can bring a bear market even when interest rates are very
low.
This is what happened in 1977, 2001 and 2002. And could happen in 2013, too.
All this means that after a New Buy B1 we will want to watch closely the trend of the
NYSE A/D Line for any trend-break.
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Peerless - 2012 version
=================================================================== Buy B1s Presidential Election Years 1928...1932...2012 =================================================================== 10/26/1944 145.8 +12.5% Sell S9 5/15/1945 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .988 .056 13 -20 72 .13 -28 0 No paper loss. ---------------------[--------------------------------------- 11/14/1944 145.6 +12.6% Sell S9 5/15/1945 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .989 -.25 13 -32 -165 .076 -79 -.031 No paper loss. ------------------------------------------------------------- 11/5/1948 178.4 +1.6% Sell S12 1/7/1949 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .962 -.18 149 43 -165 .161 222 .146 Paper loss = 4.0% The New B1 Buys here were already designated as Buy B9s. ------------------------------------------------------------- 11/24/1948 173.4 +4.6% Sell S12 1/7/1949 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .961 -1.078 78 -55 335 -.029 152 -.268 Paper loss = 1.3% ------------------------------------------------------------- 10/4/1976 977.98 +0.7% Sell S4 12/22/76 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .984 -.082 32 -8 60 .038 -1 -.174 Paper loss = 5.5% The first Buy B9 has already been treated as a Buy B9 The second cluster is not now a Buy signal. ------------------------------------------------------------- 11/9/1976 930.77 +5.8% Sell S4 12/22/76 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .983 -.271 -71 8 -131 .069 -3 -.047 Paper Loss = +.6% ------------------------------------------------------------- 10/2/1984 1191.36 +53.3% Sell S9 4/29/1986 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .983 -.324 -34 -28 -60 -.14 -4 -.094 Paper loss = 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------- 11/16/1984 1187.94 +53.6% Sell S9 4/29/1986 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .983 -.324 -34 -28 -60 -.14 -4 -.094 Paper loss = 1.3% These Buy B1s would be helpful additions. ------------------------------------------------------------- 11/10/1988 2114.31 +31.1% Sell S9 10/4/1989 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .984 -.066 -84 36 -143 .065 -8 .034 Paper loss = 3.6% The Buy B1 here is also a Buy B17 on exisiting software. The NASDAQ was underperforming the DJI at this time. It fell from 378.40 to a low of 365.07 on 11/21/1984 before turning up. ------------------------------------------------------------- 10/6/1992 3178.19 +24.8% Sell S4 2/3/1994 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .984 -.066 -84 36 -143 .065 -8 .034 Paper loss = 1.3% The Buy B1 here is also a Buy B17 on exisiting software. ------------------------------------------------------------- 10/14/2004 9894.45 +9.7% Sell S8 12/28/2004 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .984 -.066 -84 36 -143 .065 -8 .034 Paper loss = 0.1% On the NASDAQ chart, the NASDJI was very positive. ------------------------------------------------------------- 10/11/2012 13326.39 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .986 -.006 32 2 32 -.119 -65 -.086 Paper loss = open ------------------------------------------------------------- Number = 11 Avg = 19.1% =================================================================== New Buy B1s The Year after a Presidential Election Year 1929...1933...2009 =================================================================== 10/11/1977 832.3 -4.7% Sell S10 1/7/1978 10/17/1997 7847.03 +17.0% Sell S15 4/21/1998 10/28/1997 7498.32 +22.5% Sell S15 4/21/1998 10/21/2005 10215.22 +13.3% Sell S9 5/5/2006 Number = 4 Avg = 12.0% =================================================================== New Buy B1s in The Second Year after a Presidential Election Year 1930...1934...2010 =================================================================== 11/6/1950 222.5 +23.6% Sell S4 9/7/1951 275.1 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .986 -.006 32 2 32 -.119 -65 -.086 No Paper loss ------------------------------------------------------------- 10/4/1962 582.4 +20.4% Sell S10 7/1/1963 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .982 .335 -114 35 -317 -.082 -595 -.017 6% Paper loss ...DJI declined to 558.00 before rallying. ------------------------------------------------------------- 11/30/1966 791.59 +12.1% Sell S12 4/25/1967 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .981 -.241 16 -15 41 .078 3 -.082 0.8% Paper loss ...DJI declined to 875.69 before rallying. ------------------------------------------------------------- 10/7/1994 3979.43 +3.3% Sell S9 10/17/1994 la/ma 21dma ROC P-I P-ch P^^ IP21 V-I OP .984 .342 -323 -9 -511 -.043 -50 -.188 No Paper loss ------------------------------------------------------------- 10/1/2002 7938.79 +10.5% Sell S12 1/6/2003 11/30/2010 11006.02 +16.4% Sell S9 5/2/2011 Number = 6 Avg = 14.4% =================================================================== New Buy B1s in The Third Year after a Presidential Election Year 1930...1934...2010 =================================================================== 11/4/1943 136.3 +8.5% Sell S2 6/21/1944 10/29/1951 260.4 +5.3% Sell S1 1/28/1952 10/14/1971 878.36 +9.2% Sell S1 4/6/1972 10/22/1971 852.37 +12.6% Sell S1 4/6/1972 10/11/1979 844.62 -3.5% Sell S10 10/19/1979 10/4/1991 2961.76 +11.6% Sell S15 4/14/1992 96 point paper loss. 3+% 11/15/1991 2943.20 +12.3% Sell S15 4/14/1992 10/19/2007 13522.02 +0.7% Sell S12 12/6/2007 DJI fell to 12743 before rallying. Paper Loss = 6% Number = 8 Avg = 7.1% |