19360303      S15            156.2         .042
   1.026    .525   38   13  170   .014   -109   .023   .089 
19360401      S15            158.9         .058
   1.018   .206   -40   4  -174 -.097   -265   .213   .111 
19370210      S15            189.4         .126
   1.022    .468   -11   -1  -46  .055    -203   .233   .047
19370305      S15            194.1         .147 
   1.028    .373   -15    5   -65  .037    -231   .094   .059
X19540308      S15            298.6        -.005 
    1.017  .187    48   -30  163  .083      -29   .066   .062 
19600105      S15            685.5         .107 
    1.018   .40     4    6   13  -.038    -170   .099   .085 
19700401      S15            792.04        .19
    1.018   .181   -58   -3  -123 -.014    -1    .034  -.088  
19720406      S15            959.44        .025
19730105      S15            1047.49       .114 
19760324      S15            1009.21       .048
    1.024    .192   -64    10  -64 -.033     -1   .315    
19800213      S15            903.84        .14 
19900103      S15            2809.73       .074  
19940518      S15            3732.89       .026 
19980421      S15            9184.94       .169    
20000107      S15            11522.56      .131 
20020226      S15            10115.26      .19 
20080501      S15            13040         .127 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
                             No.=17        .101

PE       8      .085
PE +1    3      .129
PE +2    6      .107
PE +3    0      ----

Jan      4      .017
Feb      3      .152
Mar      4      .058
Apr      4      .111
May      2      .077 
June     0      ----
Jul      0      ----
Aug      0      ----
Sep      0      ----
Oct      0      ---- 
Nov      0      ----
Dec      0      ----

1-10      11    .092
11-20      3    .097
21-31      3    .136  

      March 2013 edition - Sell S15s
   
                      S15s are based on the V-Indicator flagrantly not confirming a new high with the
     Annualized Rate of Change of the 21-dma being under +.60.   Sell S15s can
     occur only in the Presidential Election year and the first and second years after it.
     Sell S15s also can only take place in the first five months of these years. 

                    More exactly, the DJI makes a 50-day high with the V-Indicator negative and the
      current Accumulation Index value (IP21) not more than .10.  The signal of March 2013)
      should probably be eliminated, because the P-I is over 200 and the DJI is up more than 8.8%
      over the last 65 trading days. 

                    Because NYSE Up and DOwn Volume could only be estimated before mid 1966,
      the Sell S15s before 1965 are ultimately uncertain.  All the paper losses after 1965 are
      under 3.3%. So, I would work with a stop loss at 3.4%.


                
                    There have been 23 (or 25) completed Sell S15s since 1929.  The average decline
                    for the DJI on these S15 trades was  8.4% at the time of the next major
                    Peerless Buy.  None of these signals as now refined showed a loss.
                    After 1965, the biggest paper loss was 3.3% in March 1992.  The average
                    paper loss in all cases was 0.9%.

                   A cluster of major Sells, including S9s and S12s makes the Sell S15 more
                   bearish especially after two or more previous clusters of major Sells.
                   Reversing S15s in a Presidential Election year averaged  only gains of 3.3%. 
                   There were 6 cases.  All occurred between January and April 14th.

                                                 The V-Indicator Should Not Turn Positive
                                                          for More Than A Few Days

                  Usually after an S15, the V-Indicator stays and falls more deeply negative
after the Sell S15. See the tables and charts at the bottom of this page. The V-Indicator
can sometimes turn positive for a few days. When it turns positive for a week,
as in 1992 and 2008, if there is no Peerless Buy signal, consider the DJI decline delayed
and about to start in earnest as soon as the V-Indicator turns negative again. On the
other hand, if it turns positive and keeps rising for more than a week, I would suggest
doubting Sell S15 and waiting for new signal. This occurred in January 2012 and
may be occurring again in March 2012.

                  You can see below in the case of 2004 that the DJI may be as low as 1.7%
      over the 21-day ma with the P-Indicator as high as +251 and the A/D Line still making
      new highs.  The key here and in the second case, 2/11/2004, was that there had been a
      substantial rally and the V-Indicator was negative.   In addition, the P-Indicator
      and Accumulation Index did not confirm the DJI's new high by making highs of
      their own. It should be noted in these cases that the V-Indicator quickly turned
      negative.   l
                 Here are two examples. 
                                                                                      3/4/2004   S15


                        
                                                                                2/11/2004   S15



                            In the next example, there was no S15.  This is because the Opct was too
                   high.   Still, the run upwards to recovery highs saw a complete non-confirmation
                   by the V-Indicator.  This shows the need to be vigilant, even when there
                   is no Sell S15.  The reason for not allowing the S15 here is based on findings
                   that show a Sell S15 that allowed such high OPct readings would suffer
                   more losses, as prices tend to rise in these cases.

  
                      S15s Chronologically Organized, 1929-2012
                       ^ = Reversing Sell.
        S15s                                                                                                                               Next Reversing Sell Signal               
     Date            DJI            la/ma   ann roc. P-I   P-ch    AI     V-I      OPct     Date       DJI      Gain      Signal
     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ^2/18/36     153.4       1.029    .608          57    17      .016  -28     .18          5/5/36       148.6      +3.1.%     B2
    This was first of a cluster of Peerless Sells.  DJI rallied to 160.90 on 4/7/1936 before falling below lower band
    and reaching  143.70 on 4/29/1936.
    V-Indicator went more deeply negative on the rally.

   3/5/37       194.1   %Gain=+14.7   %-Paper Loss=  0.1  
   
           LA/MA      A-ROC             P-I          IP21                V-I         Opct       65-day Pct Change
           1.028       .373        -15          .037         -231      .092      .056

   
    4/1/36         158.9       1.018     .206        -40      4    -.097   -265    .207     5/5/36       148.6      +6.5.%    B2
    DJI rallied to 160.90 on 4/7/1936 before falling below lower band
    and reaching  143.70 on 4/29/1936.
    V-Indicator went more deeply negative on the rally.
  
    ^2/10/37      189.4      1.019      .391       -10     12     .034   -202    .116 2/10/37     189.4    +12.6%   B8
    This was first of a cluster of Peerless Sells.   DJI rallied to 194.40 on 3/10/1937 before falling below lower band
    and reaching  143.70 on 4/29/1936.
    V-Indicator went more deeply negative on the rally.
  
   ^3/9/54          299.50   1.019    .223         40      -9      .10     -44   .038     3/18/54    300.10   -0.2%     B18
     This was the only Peerless Sell at this time.  A reversing Buy occurred soo after.
     The V-Indicator turned positive a week rally.

    
   1/15/60      685.5         1.018       .40         4        6    -.038    -186  .089     2/11/60    618.60   +9.8%    B17
    There has been a Sell S12 a month before.  DJI declined immeidately below the lower band after this S15.
    The V--Indicator went more deeply negative

   ^3/26/70       791.05    1.019       .35       -24     -22   -.017     -1     .055     5/25/70   641.36    +18.9%   B16
     The DJI went sidewise for a week and then plunged below the lower band. 
      The V--Indicator soon went more deeply negative.

   ^4/6/72        959.44      1.02      .159    -70    15      .036         -1        .086    7/18/72    911.72  +5.0%    B2
    An Sell S9 occurred a week later.  After S9, the DJI fell immediately to the lower band. .  
    The V-Indicatator turned positive for only one day and then fell more deeply negative, 

     5/25/72       969.07     1.025    .279    -10     14     .004      -1      .225    7/18/72      911.72  +5.9%    B2
    There has been a Sell S12 a month before.  DJI declined immeidately below the lower band after this S15.
    The V-Indicatator fell more deeply negative,


  ^1/5/1973  1047.49     1.023      .238      -77     -7    .039      -2  .053       2/26/73    953.79   + 8.9%    B16
     A Sell S9 quickly followed.  The DJI then started a, 23 month long bear market.
     The V-Indicator went more deeply negative

  ^3/24/76   1009.21      1.024    .192     -64     10    -.033        -1     .293     10/5/76     966.76    +4.2%    B2
    Simultaneous Sell S9.  DJI fell only to rising 65-dma and rallied to gather more Sells near 1000 before declining.
    The V-Indicator turned slighlty positive for a few days and then fell back into negative territory.

  4/21/76      1011.02      1.019    .345     -1      15      .038        -1      .07        10/5/76    966.76  +4.4%    B2
   DJI fell to lower band 2 months later without making additonal new highs.
   The V-Indicator remained in  negative territory.


   2/13/80      903.84       1.028       .478    -26        1     -.01       -1     .206     3/28/80     966.76  +14.0%    B19
   DJI fell immediately fell below lower band,  There was previously an S4 and an S12.
    The V-Indicator turned slightly positive for a few days and then went negative.
.
  
  ^4/24/81      1020.35    1.018     .061         1    -11   -.012       -1  11         9/28/81    842.56   +17.4%   B19  
    DJI fell immediately below to the lower band and then far below in a bear market.

  
   ^1/2/90     2810.15     1.028    .453      50       30    .108      -1       .02    1/22/90  2600.45    +7.5%     B5
    DJI fell immediately below to the lower band.  An S4 occurred the next day.
    The V-Indicator turned more deeply negative.


   ^4/14/92   3306.13     1.017    .256     -59       40      .033     -10    .231    8/21/92  3254.10   +1.6%    B2
    Simultaneous S9. DJI rallied to 3413.21 six weeks later and then fell below the first tagging of the lower band.
    The V-Indicator rose, turned positive and the DJI decline did not start until the V-Indicator
    turned negative again. 


    ^4/21/98       9184.94  1.024    .37       13      -11   .045     -7   .056      1/22/90   7632.53   +16.9%   B9         
    DJI fell to lower band 7 weeks later without making additonal new highs.  A.D Line weakened more>
    The V-Indicator turned more deeply negative...


   
    1/7/2000  11522.56    1.021    .48     -23   103      -.028      -59     .341    2/4/2000 3254.10  +13.1%     B17
     Earlier S9s.  DJI rose 2% higher (11722.98 on 1/14/2000) and then dell below lower band.
     The V-Indicator stayed deeply negative.

      
...    .
   
   ^2/11/2004 10737.70 1.017    .285   246     22      .093        -6     .136     5/18/04   9968.51    +7.2%   B2
     DJI fell immediately slightly below the lower band.  An S9 followed a week later.
     V-Indicator turned more negative after one barely psotive day.


     3/4/2005  10940.85   1.017    .381   251    40     .093      -15  .14        4/21/05     10218.6  +6.6%    B19
     Earlier S8 10 weeks earlier. S15 turned A/D Line down.   DJI fell below first touching of lower band.
     V-Indicator turned more negative after one barely psotive day.

 
     5/1/2008    13040       1.029    .405  174    34     .047      -28    .076    7/8/08   11384.21   +12.7%   B2
    Earlier S4, DJI fell far below the lower band.
     V-Indicator turned positive for a few days. When it turned negative again, the DJI fell dramatically.


   X - Eliminated in March 2013 by requiring the P-I to be below 200 when the 65-day
         Pct change is over 8.8%.

     ^1/4/2012    12418      1.025    .393   213   -35      .045        -4    .10    7/8/08   11384.21  -1.3%   B10
    DJI kept rallying.  A Buy B10 followed a week later. DJI advanced upwards.
    V-Indicator turned very positive and DJI kept rallying.


     ^3/14/2012  13194     1.019    .295   129   -148      .069        -24   .23    open...
    V-Indicator has turned positive.  Watch it.   A reversal and decline into negative territory would be bearish for the DJI

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      21 Completed Short Trades based on Sell 15  Avg Gain = +7.9%
      14 Completed Short Trades based on Reversing Sell 15  Avg Gain = +7.3%