------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Buy on Unconfirmed DJI low below lower 2.5% band
based on All Key Peerless Indicators.
There were 15 Buy B7s. The average gain was 10.8% since 1928 and 23.0% since 1945.
There were no losses.
The 4 Buy B7s in the years with Mid-Term Elections brought gains that
averaged 23.6%. However, Buy B7s in the Third Year of the Presidential cycle
resulted in gains that averaged only 3.9%. Gains for Buy B7s in the first 10 days
of the month averaged less than one third others that took place later in the month.
The 3 Buy B17s in November and December gained 39.6% and 26.5%, respectively.
Without these November and December B17s, the average B17 gain was still +6.3%
after 1945.
Size of Peerless Buy B7s
>10% 4 26.7%
5%-9.99% 3 20.0%
2%-4.99% 8 53.3%
0%-1.99% 0 ---------
losses 0 ---------
| Buy B7 Trading Results: 1928-2013
^^ = Only in Extreme Bearish Mode Gain Paper Loss 19310123 B7^^ 171.8 .032 2.9%
19320211 B7^^ 78.6 .092 none
19320913 B7 69.9 .023 6.9% paper loss
19380812 B7 136.5 .048 none
19450326 B7 152.3 .077 none
19530831 B7 261.2 .143 2.2%
19680808 B7 870.37 .123 none
19741127 B7 619.29 .396 6.7% paper loss
19741211 B7 595.35 .453 1.4%
19750807 B7 815.79 .024 2.95%
19870908 B7 2545.12 .037 2.1%
19871207 B7 1812.17 .072 no paper loss
20080708 B7 11384.12 .022 3.7%
20100608 B7 9939.98 .047 no paper loss
20110607 B7 12070.81 .028 1.4%
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No = 15 .108
(All B7s since 1945: No.= 11 Avg.= .130)
PE 4 .065 PE +1 2 .111 PE +2 4 .236 high PE +3 5 .039 low January 1 .032 February 1 .092 March 1 .077 April 0 ---- May 0 ---- June 2 .038 July 1 .022 August 4 .085 September 2 .030 October 0 ---- November 1 .396 December 2 .263 1-10 8 .050
11-20 4 .154
21-31 4 .162
Code:
Regular Sell S7
For i = 135 To rn
For j = i - 100 To i - 1
If S9(i) = 112 Then 45903 'S12 signals kick this record out.
Next j:
If mo(i) = 10 And da(i) > 22 Then 45903 ' No buy signals after 10/22
If mo(i) = 11 Or mo(i) = 12 Then 45903
45903 If (la(i) / ma(i)) < .963 And opma(i) < -.177 Then 7400
h1 = 250 * (ma(i) - ma(i - 1)) / ma(i - 1) 'H1 is annroc
If h1 < -.6 And opma(i) < -.177 Then 7400
If h1 < -.45 And v21(i) < -194 Then 7400
If (yr(i) - 1) / 4 = Int((yr(i) - 1) / 4) And mo(i) < 10 Then 7400
If (yr(i) - 1) / 4 = Int((yr(i) - 1) / 4) And mo(i) >= 10 Then 58382
If la(i) > la(i - 134) Then 7400 DJI must be below its level of 6 months earlier.
For j = i - 90 To i - 1
If adline(j) > adline(i) Then GoTo 7400
If P21(j) > P21(i) Then GoTo 7400
Next j
58382 if mo(i) = 10 And da(i) < 21 Then 7400
If la(i) / ma(i) < .9325 Then 7400
If la(i) / ma(i) > .975 Then 7400
pi = i: : b7arrows (pi): S9(i) = 107: mb(i) = 7: i = i + 5' change s9(i)=7
7400 Next i
|
======================================================
Last edited 7/15/2011
Buy B7s are buys at the lower band or lower soon after a Buy B12. Do
not use them in
extreme bear markets,
like 1929-1932, 1937-1938, 2008-2009, when the DJI has fallen
more than 40% in the
previous 10 months.
End of 1968-1970 Bear Market Buy B7
End of 1973-1974 Bear Market Buy B7
Buy B7s are reliably very bullish. None of the 10 Buy B7s was closed out at
a loss. The
average gain was very significant +12.8% The biggest paper loss was 7%.
There were also 2 paper
losses of 4.2%.
Five of the 10 Buy B7s were reversing
Buy signals
Buy B7 10/23/1933 88.1 12.3%
Sell S12 12/1/1933 98.9 1.7%
Buy B7 12/18/1933 97.2 12.0%
Sell S4 2/1/1934 108.9 4.8%
Date
DJI Gain
Rev.Sell Date
DJI
Gain
Buy B7 10/23/1933 88.1
12.3% Sell S12
12/1/1933 98.9
1.7%
Buy B7 12/18/1933
97.2 12.0%
Sell S4 2/1/1934
108.9 4.8%
Buy B7 8/15/1938 136.9
15.0% Sell S9
11/10/1938 157.5
6.6%
BUY B7 7/7/1970 669.36
6.3% SELL S9 7/15/70
711.66 0.6%
BUY B7 8/13/1970 707.35
32.5% SELL S9 5/6/71
937.39
11.9%
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+15.6%
+5.1 %
Buy B7s were most
bullish after a bear market or a 6-12 month consolidation.
Buy B7s require
that:
there have been a Buy B12 in the last 10 weeks,
the DJI be 2% to 7% below the 21-day ma
the DJI not be down more then .95% for the day of the Buy B7
The Buy B7
should not be used in when the DJI is down more than 40% from its
high
of the last 10 months. There has not been a Buy B7 cince 19t0.
Because the historical odds are 14/24, or 58.3%, the the year after a Presidential
Election year will drop sharply in the first nine months, B7s are not allowed until
late October in these years.
Pres.Election Year +1 DJI Performance:
Down Up
-------------------- -------------
1917 1925
1921 1945
1929 1961
1933 (1st half) 1965
1937 1985
1941 1989
1949 (1st half) 1993
1953 (1st half 1997
1957 2005
1969 2009
1973
1977
1981
2001
----------------------------------------
N=14 N =10
B7s before October 20th in the year after a Presidential Election are not allowed by the
Peerless Software. To my surpise, at first, they actually work out reasonably well
in this year, although there there are some paper losses. This shows that seasonal
patterns are not over-powering and Buy B12s in this normally weak year are probably
quite significant. Be on the alert for these pull-backs after a Buy B12 in this year.
1 OK
10/31/1933 88.2 +5.8% Sell S12 12/1/1933 98.9 -1.7%
.934 -1.193 -103 (56) -.12 -370 -.086
2 OK
12/18/1933 97.2 +12.3% Sell S4 2/1/1934 108.9 4.8%
.974 -.215 -42 (-36) -.226 -158 -.102 Paper Loss = 2%
3. X 3/27/45 152.80 +7.3% 5/15/45 164 S9
.968 -.422 88 (+19) -.068 94 .047
DJI rose immediately.
4 X 2/8/49 173.7 +23.9% 4/14/50 215.3 S9
.968 -.457 -84 -.095 -147 -.28 Pch = 10
DJI fell to 161.60 on 6/13/49 (7.0% paper loss) and then rallied strongly.
5 8/26/53 266.5 +53.7% 2/1/55 409.7 S9
.975 -.113 -6 .061 -84 -.118 Pch=4
DJI fell to 255.50 on 9/14/53 (4.2% loss) and then rallied strongly.
6 9/15/53 257.7 +59.0% 2/1/55 409.7 S9
.97 -.804 -252 -.213 -472 -.26 Pch=12
DJI rose immediately.
==========================================================
N=6 Avg Gain = 27.0%
Buy B7s since 1928
Date DJI Gain Signal Date DJI Gain
---------------- ----------- -------- -------------- -------------- --------- -----------
(1)
10/23/1933 88.1 12.3% Sell S12 12/1/1933 98.9 1.7%
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.934 -1.193 -103 (56) -.12 -370 -.086 No Paper Loss
DJI rallied to resistance of neckline in overhead head and shoulders, fell back to
a second Buy B7 anf then rose past upper band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(2)
12/18/1933 97.2 12.3% Sell S4 2/1/1934 108.9 4.8%
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.974 -.215 -42 (-36) -.226 -158 -.102 Paper Loss = 2%
DJI fell 2% and rallied past the upper band.
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(3)
8/15/38 136.9 15.0% 11/10/38 157.50 S12 Paper Loss = 5%
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.966 -.034 -43 (-8) -.037 -92 .014
DJI rallied to upper band, but got no Sell and then fell to 130 in 7 weeks
and then rallied far past the upper band.
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(4)
11/29/38 147.1 1.6% 1/3/39 153.60 S9 Paper Loss =7%
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.968 .414 -65 (+19) -.058 -92 - .014
DJI rallied immediately to what was close to a Sell S9 on 1/3/39
and then fell to 136.48 on 1.26 and then rallied back to the upper band and a Sell. .
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(5)
1/15/1940 144.7 0.1% 5/10/40 144.8 Sell S10 No Paper Loss
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.968 -.334 -27 (-31) -.17 -72 -.062
DJI rallied close to the upper band, but there was no sell signal there.
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(6)
11/9/43 131.9 +12.1% 1/4/44 138.2 S1 Paper Loss =2%
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.961 -.39 118 (-40) -.203 98 -.073
DJI fell to 130 on `11/29/43 and then rallied strongly.
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X means the signal does not appear automatically.
X 3/27/45 152.80 +7.3% 5/15/45 164 S9
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.968 -.422 88 (+19) -.068 94 .047
DJI rose immediately.
Normally, the years after a Presidential Election are weak. In this case, with WWII
close to ending, the market was very jubilant.
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(7)
10/30/46 164.2 +1.5% 10/22/47 184.4 S4
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.969 -.512 -31(-4) .007 -19 -.197 No paper loss.
DJI rose quickly to 183.60 on 2/10/1946. There was no sell there. Note quick head
and shoulders pattern. Then decline back to 163.60 and then a good rally.
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X 2/8/49 173.7 +23.9% 4/14/50 215.3 S9
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.968 -.457 -84 (+20) -.095 -147 - .28
DJI fell to 161.60 on 6/13/49 (7.0% paper loss) and then rallied strongly.
Normally, the years after a Presidential Election are weak and so Buy B7s are not allowed at this time..
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X 8/26/53 266.5 +53.7% 2/1/55 409.7 S9
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.975 -.113 -6 .061 -84 -.118 Pch=4
DJI fell to 255.50 on 9/14/53 (4.2% loss) and then rallied strongly.
Normally, the years after a Presidential Election are weak and so Buy B7s are not allowed at this time..
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X 9/15/53 257.7 +59.0% 2/1/55 409.7 S9
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.97 -.804 -252 -.213 -472 -.26 Pch=12
DJI rose immediately.
Normally, the years after a Presidential Election are weak and so Buy B7s are not allowed at this time..
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(8)
7/7/70 669.37 +6.3% 7/15/70 711.66 S12
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.965 -.44 -266 (+15) .142 -3 -.161
DJI rose immediately. Note how low the P-Indicators was in this instance.
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(9)
8/13/70 707.35 +24.5% 5/5/71 937.39 S9
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.975 -.071 -1 (-38) -.021 -2 -.155
DJI rose immediately.
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(10)
12/11/74 595.35 +42.0% 8/29/75 845.34 S9
la/ma ann.roc P-I IP21 V-I Opct
.933 1.75 -314 (-29) -.238 -4 -.397
DJI rose immediately and then rallied strongly. Note how low the P-Indicators was in this instance.
========================================================================
Totals .... 10 completed Trades, Avg. Gain = + 12.8%
All closed out B7s were profitable.
6 of 10 saw no paper loss.