DJIA: END OF YEAR Pivots Down and Up (C) 2010 William Schmidt, Ph.D. www.tigersoft.com |
January saw 15 significant pivots downward by the DJI of more than 8% in the period 1915-2010, that is about once every 6.5 years. Peerless Major Sells occurred in all the cases since 1929, where the data is available for a major Sell. 5 occurred during a Presidential Election Year. 6 took place in the year after the Pres. Election. Only twice was there a pivot down two years after the Election. There was also only 2 cases three years after the Election. Pivots up in January were just as common in the second and third year after the Election. Year Yrs Peak Signs of Reversal 6 mo Decline after PE ==== ======== ======== ===================== =============== 1916 0 1/3/1916 OBV NC, Rising Wedge 1935 3 1/7/1935 Sell S12, UB, resistance 3-mo 8% 1941 1 1/10/1941 apex of HS right shoulder 4-mo 14% red distribution - S12 la/ma=1.02 P=45 IP21= -.068 V=7 OPct= .472 1953 1 1/6/1953 S8 5.5mo 11% 1957 1 1/2/1957 earlier S9/S12 1.5mo 9% 1960 0 1/5/1960 S12, S9, S15 2 mo 13% 1966 2 1/17/1966 S4, S12 bear market starts. 1968 0 1/9/1976 S12 2.5 mo 9% (1968 0 12/2/1968 S1 bear market) 1973 1 1/11/1973 S9,S12 bear market 1977 1 1/3/1977 S4,S8 bear market 1984 0 1/6/1984 S12, rising wedge 4,5 mo decline - 16% la/ma=1.022 P=34 IP21= -.035 V=-1 OPct= -.085 1990 2 1/3/1990 S4, S15 3 weeks - 10% la/ma=1.027 P=36 IP21= .08 1994 2 2/3/1994 S4 10 weeks - 10% 2000 0 1/14/2000 S9, S4, S15 2 months - 17% 2003 3 1/15/2003 S12 2 months - 15% 2004 0 2/12/2004 S9V, S15, S12 3 months - 8% 2009 1 1/6/2009 new S12 10 week - 27% la/ma=1.037 P=562 IP21= .028 OPct- -.006 PIVOTS UP 12/19/1918 2 yrs after Pres. Election 12/9/1975 2 yrs after Pres. Election 12/8/1976 Pres. Election 12/31/1987 3 yrs after Pres. Election 1/12/1998 2 yrs after Pres. Election |