NYSE A/D LINE UP TREND-BREAKS
   IN FIRST QUARTER OF A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
                         WHEN DJIA IS STRONGLY UP.

         1936, 1944, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1976, 1980,
                     1988, 1992, 1996, 2004

     First Break of A/D Line Brings
                     DJI falls to 21-dma:  1936, 1972, 1976, 2004  (4/11)
                     DJI falls 2% below 21-dma and then rallies: 1944, 1964, 1992, 1996 (4/11)
                     DJI falls to lower band: 1988
                     DJI falls slightly below lower band: 1956
                     DJI falls far below lower band: 1980

       First Break of A/D Line Brings
          A/D Line falls quickly to 21-dma and then recovers to make new highs: 1972
          A/D Line enters a zig-zag trading range pattern: 1936, 1996, 2004
          A/D Line falls below its 21-dma and falls for one-two months before recovering. 1944, 1956, 1964, 1976, 1988
          A/D Line falls far below its 21-dma and falls for two months before recovering: 1980, 1992

      In 8 of 11 cases the DJI fell no more than 4% and in 7 of 11 cases the A/D Line declined for 4 to 10
      weeks.
       

1936DATA3536.BMP (1920054 bytes)
1944DATA4344.BMP (1920054 bytes)
1956DATA5556.BMP (1920054 bytes)
1964DATA6364.BMP (1920054 bytes)
1972DATA7172.BMP (1920054 bytes)
1976DATA7576.BMP (1920054 bytes)
1980DATA7980.BMP (1920054 bytes)
1988 DATA8788.BMP (1920054 bytes)
1992 DATA9192.BMP (1920054 bytes)
1996 DATA9596.BMP (1920054 bytes)
2004DATA0304.BMP (1440054 bytes)