DJIA

DIA  - Daily

DIA - Exploded Chart

SPY SPY - Exploded Chart

QQQ QQQ - Exploded Chart

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   8/30/2011       
    DJI = 11560 +21  la/ma= 1.025   21-dmaROC= -.603  P = +7 (+29 ) IP21= .047 V= - 122 OP= +.217
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
     149 (+20)  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                          
      9  (+3)  MINCP stocks      Bearish MINCP Stocks   
                         MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                        Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish than the Public is.
      17 new highs on NASDAQ.  12   new lows on NASDAQ
      21   new highs NYSE               0  new lows on NYSE

         8/30/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude 

        8/30/2011    Peerless remains on Buys.  The Closing Powers are rising.

                            Though the DJI rose from early weakness, at the close it backed off the
        overhead resistance  at 11600.    Volume remains low on the rally.  (See the short-term
        SPY just below.)    As a result, it is not clear that there will be sufficient buying to eat
        up the overhead supply of stock.  Still this is a short-term bullish period and Professionals
        are not bearish yet, as there are only 9 stocks making CP new lows, but 149 making CP
        new highs.




        In the DJI chart below, the P-Indicator and IP21 are only slightly positive. Peerless could
        easily produce a Sell S9 or Sell S12 on a close nearer 11600 if these indicators turn
        negative.  The NASDAQ chart (below) does show a Sell S4 based on negative Accumulation
        and Relative Strength Tiger "NASD" readings.  





        The uptrends of the Closing Power and the A/D Line are still rising and Peerless is
        still on a buy.  I think we should hold our long positions.

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    8/29/2011       
    DJI = 11539 -171  la/ma= 1.021   21-dmaROC= -.635  P = -23 (+170 ) IP21= .035 V= - 143 OP= -.154
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
    129 (+73)  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                          
    6  (-28)  MINCP stocks      Bearish MINCP Stocks    (Friday's)
                         (MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        At this point these are extended a long ways, so - use well-tested CP trendbreaks
                        to close out positions.  Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish
                        than the Public is.
      20  new highs on NASDAQ.   7   new lows on NASDAQ
      22   new highs NYSE                4  new lows on NYSE

DJI and Peerless Signals

DIA - full chart

DIA - CandleStick

SPY enlarged chart

QQQ Enlarged Chart.

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     8/26/2011       
    DJI = 11150 -171  la/ma= .98   21-dmaROC= -1.201  P = -325 (+44 ) IP21= -.086 V= - 386 OP= -..035
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
    47 (+19)  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                          
    34  (-78)  MINCP stocks      Bearish MINCP Stocks    
                         (MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        At this point these are extended a long ways, so - use well-tested CP trendbreaks
                        to close out positions.  Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish
                        than the Public is.
       4   new highs on NASDAQ.   30  new lows on NASDAQ
       9   new highs NYSE                 7  new lows on NYSE

         8/26/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude 


        
    8/26/2011    The DJI and key ETFs are locked in triangle patterns.  The Peerless
    Buys and the DJI's rising support line have made us bet on an upside breakout. 
    The Closing Powers are in short-term uptrends.  A breakout in the DIA's CP above
    its recent flat resistance would be bullish, as would a breaking in its Opening Power's
    downtrend.  A very strong Opening which is added onto by an even more powerful
    Close would break these downtrends.  Wall Street dodged a hurricaine.  Maybe, it's
    luck is improving.


  

    Volume did not rise much on Friday.  Investors are scared.   Rising prices will
    give traders more confidence.  The rising uptrendline-support in the DJI is about 10900.
    A close below this would probably mean the DJI is breaking down again.
    If  that is broken, the next support level is expected to be 9800. A few more trading days'
    hesitation is predicted by the history of the DJI since 1965.  But a week from now the DJI
    should be higher, based on the fact that since 1965, the DJI has risen 64.4% of the time
    in the five trading days after August 28th.   The margin of MAXCP stocks over MINCP
    stocks is only 47 to 34, a hardly convincing number.  Biotechs often offer good long trades
    late in a bull market cycle.  As long as the ones, picked in the Bullish MAXCP Stocks' list show
    rising Closing Powers, they are appealing.  The bearish MINCP stocks have already fallen
    a very long way.  My guess is that shorts will be happy to take profits in most of them if
    the market moves higher as we go into the 3-day Labor Day weekend.

                                              Can Pumped Up Stocks Escape Trouble?

    The world economy still has huge problems.  Will stocks be able to stay up?  The Fed has
    done a marvelous job in keeping the stock market rally alive for 27 months by generously
     loaning vast sums to all the biggest banks at very little cost, by printing new money to buy
     bonds and by keeping interest rates low, despite quickly rising gold and commodity prices.
     Bernanke is fighting the forces of economic stagnation and high unemployment
     with only monetary policies.  They are not enough, he is the first to say.  More stagnation,
     higher unemployment and the loss of more manufacturing to Asia and Europe are in
     the cards.  A longer economic stagnation and higher unemployment will cause, I expect,
     a re-thinking of economic orthodoxies, especially free trade and balanced budgets.

                                                 Globalism Will Likely Break Down

     The 1930s caused many countries and economists to rethink orthodox economics.
     I think the same will happen again.  Now Budget Balancing is all the rage in Washington,
     London, Berlin, Paris and now Spain.  Its dire effects in Europe and the US in the 1930s
     seem unknown or forgotten.  But if history repeats, when these countries' economies
     worsen and unemployment jumps to unacceptable levels, as happened in 1931 and
     1932, there will be more and more cries for Deficit Spending, Protectionism, Public works,
     Curbs on Exports of Capital, Wage and Price controls and even the Confiscation of Gold.

     Germany's leading banker of the 1920s, Hjalmar Schact, a free trader and budget balancer,
     read Keynes and dramatically reversed himself completely in 1929.   Keynes himself switched
     to protectionism in 1933, as did Neville Chamberlain, the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

     Imagine in our time, if someone like Bernanke or Buffett suddenly switched to strongly
     favoring Public Works, Tariffs, Autarchy  (national economic self-sufficiency) and even the
     Repudiation of International Debts, as Schact did.  Wall Street would take a very big hit! 
     Yet these were many of the policies adopted in the aftermath of the world wide economic
     collapse of 1931 and 1932.   Wall Street has bet big on multinationals.  The biggest "American"
     stocks are all multinationals.  I think wrenching challenges lie ahead to stock prices,
     especially if the current rally fails and Obama and the Tea Party leaders offer no new ideas
     in early September about how to create millions of jobs by re-industrializing  America.  

    Many economists think that the 1929 stock market collapse was partly a response to the growing
    realization then that the Smoot Hawley legislation was going to pass, with its big jump in tariffs. 
    The dependence on international trade is much greater now.  Wall Street and the major
    corporations would never allow such an increase in tariffs.  Yet, without some restrictions
    on imports or subsidized industrial production here, a massive pubic works program, like TVA,
    the Hoover, Grand Coulee Dam or Civilian Conservation Corp., would be much less effective
    as an economic stimulus.  Consider high speed trains as a US public works program to modernize
    the infrastructure.   Presently, much of the steel would have to be imported. And the newly
    hired workers would probably buy lots of Chinese imports from Wal-Mart.   Keynes'
    "multiplier effect" with public works projects in the US is much lower now than it was in 1933.
            
   Tennessee Valley Authority        Grand Coulee Dam                Hoover Dam                              CCC


      The easiest path politically now in the US is still relying on Bernanke to boost Wall Street
      and hope that there with be some trickle-down to American workers, even though the export
      of jobs goes on unabated. 

      Tariffs do have their downside.  Which industries should be protected?  Across-the-board?
      The links below argue that the Obama Adminstration has not bargained any more aggressively
      with US trading partners, particularly China,  than he did with the tea party Republicans.  Should
      goods produced unsafely by underpaid serfs be allowed into the US?  When it comes to
      campaign contributions, the importers generally speak louder than the unemployed workers
      that have been displaced. Whereas once up a time, the corporations that made steel or
      sneakers or autos might have complained bitterly, now they own many of the factories
      abroad that are sending goods here.

                 References to Obama's failure to fight against unfair foreign trade practices
                 that hurt American manufacturing:
                 http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-lafayette-la/obama-s-trip-to-china-could-further-destroy-america-or-is-that-the-plan
                       http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-233548728.html                   
                 http://americanmanufacturing.org/blog?p=12026
                  http://citizen.typepad.com/eyesontrade/2011/08/pelosi-pushes-back-against-obama-backed-unfair-trade-agreements.html
                  http://www.punxsypage.com/news/start/68431_Casey_to_Obama__Protect_dairy_farmers_from_unfair_trade_practices.htm
                  http://www.mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/07/president-obamas-retreat-china-costing-america-jobs http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dnc-chair-debbie-wasserman-schultz-mitt-romney-will-not-stand-up-for-american-workers-in-the-global-economy-126280603.html

      Tariff  legislation, though probably easily made popular now, as a way to save jobs here, 
      would almost certainly mean antagonizing China, which has built whole industries
      around exports to the US.  There would be retaliation by all the trading partners in
      the US.  Foreign US Debt holders would likely sell.   That would mean the Fed would have to
      print lots more Dollars or a very sharp rise in interest rates.     

                      

      So, the future does not look good.   The 1930s should warn us about how quickly the world
      can deteriorate.  Gold is a haven until there is another violent Crash, as in October 2008.
      That Gold turned up sharply the last two trading days this week suggests a crash is not
      imminent, but it probably is coming, tragically.  I suggested taking profits in Gold earlier
      this week.   Now it is roaring back. Look how the Closing Power has reversed.  Buy it back
      if GLD' Closing Power makes a new high, my suggestion is Buy GLD again.  I would
      also buy GLD on another retreat by the Closing Power back to a point near its year-long rising
      CP uptrend.   See the expanded chart below and the yearly chart among the key Industries'
      and ETFs' charts.     http://tigersoft.com/811hotline/Charts/index.html

                                                       GOLD's Hyperbolic Uptrend

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GLD - Gold ETF - Closing Power's Uptrend was broken..  In the past such breaks          have cooled off the advance for a while.   But with Gold being heavily speculated in,          it may just bounce up off the rising 21-day ma and start up again.  See below how positive          Accumulation Index is.  That suggests buyers in the wings will scoop GLD on a decline.          If Bernanke loosens further public funds to protect the big banks, the monetary scenario          that is most bullish for Gold will continue.  Of course, speculation in Gold could be          reduced by increasing margin requirements here, as Shanghai has done.  But Obama's          regulators may not be so inclined to intrude.  They have been loathe to offend the big          banks or Wall Street since March 2008.

PEERLESS DJIA

DIA and CLosing Power

SPY and Closing Power

QQQ and CLosing Power

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     8/23/2011       
    DJI = 11177+322  la/ma= .973   21-dmaROC= -1.459  P = -469 (+191 ) IP21= -.149 V= - 404 OP= -.115
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
    53   MAXCP stocks       Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                          
    165  MINCP stocks       Bearish MINCP Stocks    
                         (MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        At this point these are extended a long ways, so - use well-tested CP trendbreaks
                        to close out positions.  Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish
                        than the Public is.
         3   new highs on NASDAQ.   132 new lows on NASDAQ
         4   new highs NYSE                 159  new lows on NYSE

         8/23/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude 
        
                                                   The Financial Canary Looks Very Ill Again.

         How much of a rally can there be when the biggest banks stocks like BAC, GS, C and MS
         hardly turn up on a day the DJI rises more than 300?  The big banks  show very heavy
         red distribution and falling Closing Powers  The weakening housing market is a
         huge problem and none of the home building stocks we follow is now above its 65-dma.   
         These are the same conditions we saw in 2007 and 2008.  This time around, however,
         it will be very hard politically for the FED and Congress to bail out the big banks. 
        
          I think Obama, Geithner and Bernanke may try to do something on their behalf in a few days,
          rather than next year in the middle of the Presidential campaign.  That may bring a Labor Day
          bounce for the market.  Here is a new group-chart which I will call BIGBANK.  The data for
          these will be available starting tomorrow on our Tiger Data Page.  

          If the bank stocks do not turn up soon, we will be entering the normally bearish period of
          September and October and they will be even more susceptible to heavy professional
          shorting.  The leveraged short ETF on Financial, FAZ, gives traders a way to really hurt
          these stocks.  It will be hard to ban shorting on financials, as France has done, and still
          allow shorting ot other stocks.


                                    
                                            Watch the Closing Power Downtrendlines

         Hold the Bearish MINCP Shorts as long as their CLosing Powers are in tact.
         Stay Long Gold, where the CLosing Power is still in an uptrend.  The Peerless Buys
         are treated with high suspicion here until the DJI gets back within the normal 3.5%
         bands and the 21-Day ANROC rises back above -1.00.  The first condition is now
         extant.  The DJI is now  2.7% below the 21-day ma.  But the momentum is still too deeply
         down.  The  21-Day ANROC is -1.459.  (See the discussion of ANROC last night and
         the the day before, too).

        Watch the key ETF's CLosing Power downtrends.   The rally today did not break their
        downtrends.  Despite today's rally, there are 3x more MINCP than MAXCP stocks.
        Market leadership is extremely defensive and very scattered.  Both the Opening
        and CLosing Powers are falling.  This is when there is greatest risk of a steep decline.
        Prices are apt to open lower and then do much lower at the close.

        Very short-term computerized traders jumped aboard when they saw that there would not be
        a follow-through decline this morning.   They understand that the DJI's rising bottoms
        offer a useful uptrendline. shown below in green.  As long as that uptrendlineis not violated,
        some quick traders are willing to hold and see if a base for a bigger bounce forms.
        It is a simple matter of risk reward for them. Other computerized traders, with their
        ability to trade in a nanosecond, and trade overseas if needed, are apt to sell if the
        markets are not up tomorrow after the first 30 minutes.  Their loyalty to holding is measured
        in minutes, not months. 

                                                                      Day Trading

        Day traders, the only way I know to trade these one day moves is to understand that
        once short-term support holds, a rally looking for resistance usually develops.   Draw
        trendlines on a very short-term chart. Accept modest profits when there is so much overhead
        supply of stock and the 21-day momentum is down steeply, as now  Yahoo provides useful
        5-day charts, but 10-day charts are better.   I will have to write something that produces this.
        Usually, I would say trade the trend predicted by the Peerless operative signals.  Here
        that would mean trading on the Buy side.  But because of how far below the 21-day ma the
        DJI was when they occurred, they are very suspect.   
       



                                                    DJIA and Automatic Peerless

                                     DIA, QQQ and SPY with Closing Power Downtrends



 

             Work in progress

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     8/22/2011       
    DJI = 10855 +37  la/ma= .939   21-dmaROC= -1.868  P = -661 (-11 ) IP21= -.19 V= - 452 OP= -.183
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
    26(-25)   MAXCP stocks             Bullish MAXCP Stocks   (only gold looks good)                                                   
    553  (+222) MINCP   stocks   -    Bearish MINCP Stocks    
                         (MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        At this point these are extended a long ways, so - use well-tested CP trendbreaks
                        to close out positions.  Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish
                        than the Public is.
         3   new highs on NASDAQ.   132 new lows on NASDAQ
         4   new highs NYSE                 159  new lows on NYSE

         8/22/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude 

        
          Hold the Bearish MINCP Shorts, Stay Long Gold and Watch The CLosing Power Downtrends.

         Our Bearish MINCP Stocks keep falling and Gold keeps rising.  Until these plays break
         their Closing Power trends, I would just keep doing what is working.  Gold is due for
         another pullback, but it will probably be short-lived. 



                                                TESTING for A BOTTOM in QUICKSAND?

         A break in the CP downtrend will be needed to bring a trustworthy rally.  The key
         markets are again testing their recent lows' support. The recent Peerless Buys are trying
         to produce a rally going into Labor Day's bullishness, but both Opening and Closing
         Powers are still falling and the indexes are too far below their 21-day moving avgs. to
         trust the Peerless Buys.      

   .

         Today's rally at the opening fizzled away, but the DJI still closed up.  The Closing Powers
         for the DIA, SPY and QQQ are in falling trands.   Notice how Professionals have turned
         to selling and shorting 20x more stocks than they are buying: the ratio of MAXCP
         stocks to MINCP stocks is 553 to 26.    The DJI is clearly trying to hold up at the recent lows
         just above 10600.  Because of the ways the DJI has knifed through higher support
         levels, my guess is that we should expect a test of 9800, which represents a 50% correction
         of the last two and a half years' gain, from 6550 to 12800. 



         The problem remains the unusual speed of the decline.  We measure that using the
         daily rate of change of the 21-day ma times 250.  This is Tiger's "AROC".   As in 2008,
         below, the DJI is trying to hold up after falling almost 16%.  In 2008, despite the rate of
         decline, when the DJI's AROC broke its downtrend, the DJI made one last attermpt to
         get up past the falling 65-dma.  It could not and instead the AROC uptrend was broken
         and the extreme bear market followed. This seems a good model for now.  If the AROC
         downtrend here (below) breaks its downtrend, we should see a rally here, back up
         towards 11600.  The falling Closing Powers trends will have to be broken first.  Until then,
         be suspicious of openings.

       

 

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     8/19/2011        

    DJI = 10818  la/ma= .929   21-dmaROC= -1.935  P = -650 (-163 ) IP21= -.171 V= - 458 OP= -.25
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
    51 (-21)   MAXCP stocks             Bullish MAXCP Stocks   (only gold looks good)                                                   
    231  (+167) MINCP   stocks   -    Bearish MINCP Stocks    
                         (MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        At this point these are extended a long ways, so - use well-tested CP trendbreaks
                        to close out positions.  Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish
                        than the Public is.
         4   new highs on NASDAQ.   187 new lows on NASDAQ
         4   new highs NYSE                 203 new lows on NYSE

         8/19/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude 

         Friday's news that Hewlett Packard's plan to get out of the personal computer business
          rattled IBM, APPL and many of HPQ's suppliers.  HPQ, a DJI-30 stock, fell 20%.  They
          would not be exiting this field if they felt consumers were going to have lots of money to buy
          new computers.  They would not be getting out of the business if they thought that Microsoft
          and other vendors were on the verge of offering break-through new software products.  This
          news is another wave breaking over the markets and dampening confidence.  Each few
          days in a bear market, something new befalls the market. At some point a new technology
          will emerge that will attract investors and we will watch for it.  But right now, Professionals
          are seeing more opportunity in short-selling.  (Perhaps, short-selling should be banned, so
          that boosters of new technologies would always be paid more attention to.  But that, of
          course, is not how the system works. Short-selling we are told by Wall Street is good for
          markets and somehow good the general economy.).  Given the leveraged short ETFs and
          the unlimited short selling on down ticks using phantom borrowed shares, I would
          definitely respect the trend, which is now down.  I would be surprised if the DJIA does not
          re-test 9800-10000.  



         

          Considering the speed of the decline, I would remain bearish and advise being heavily
          short the bearish MINCP stocks despite the recent Peerless Buys.  The QQQ needs
          to correct at least 1/3 of its advance since the bottom in March 2009.

          The weekly QQQ (below) and weekly DIA do show much stronger Accumulation Index
          readings than they did in July 2008 just before the markets collapsed.  The daily Accumulation
          Index readings are more important, I think, and they are bearishly negative.  Another
          difference from 2008 is that gold and gold stocks are not collapsing.  Not quite everything
          is being hastily sold in a panic.  Will this save the market from a comparable decline.  I think
          so, but right now, more weakness seems likely.



                                                                  TRADING SHORT-TERM

          We will want to keep watching the CLosing Powers' declining trends for the DIA,
          SPY and QQQ.  A break in them to the upside will likely bring another bounce from
          the oversold condition we are in.  I noticed that these ETFs' data have been changed
          from their first posting.  Look here for the charts using the last posted data. 

         There is some bullish news and the Opening appears to be up.
.
           1) It looks like Libya will soon be free of Gadhafi.  That will end one of America's 3
           expensive.
           2) Congress and the President are on vacation.  They cannot make things worse.
           3) Seasonality will soon turn bullish.  Though the DJI has risen only 46.7% of the time
           over the 3 trading days after 8/21 since 1966, it rises 57.8% of the time over the
           next two weeks.




         

          A DJI close clearly below 10600 will probably bring a Sell S13.  It would reverse
          the now active Buy signals that we have been largely ignoring because of the speed
          of the decline and because of the DJI being so far below the normal 3.5% bands.
          It may even come close to also causing us to switch to "Extreme Bearish Mode".
          That would require an S13E.   The difference between a Sell S13 and Sell S13E is mainly
          that a still deeper decline must occur.  See the discussion of Sell S13s and Sell S13Es
          since 1929.  (Some additional programming is being done to show these signals
          automatically and to document the parameters used.  Folks who have gotten the S9V
          updates will get these automatically.  The Peerless updates are also be posted on the
          Elite Subscribers' Page (ESP).  

          For now let's wait to see what happens over the next two weeks.  If there is a new
          decline, we will need to see what the internals of the market are then and test them,
          to see how well they match the past cases shown that have produced Sell S13s.

                                                        GOLD - Still the best Long Bet?

           Gold's continued rise shows how universal are fears that currencies are endangered by
           the significant weakening of world economies, especially in Europe and the US.  There
           does not appear to be any other better investment.  So speculators are attracted, of course,
           too.  Will Gold keep rising?  Probably.  After all, Silver has risen 800% since 2003.  Low
           interest rates make holding zero-dividend gold in a vault cheap.  In 1980, Gold rose even
           when interest rates went over 10%.  Only a deliberate FED deflationary policy that was
           willing to bring a deep recession stopped gold's  rise. 

           I don't see the FED worrying soon about Gold's rise, although there are those that consider
           3 dissenters to be an "open revolt", as there were when Bernanke put forth his
           promise that the Fed would keep rates low for two years.  (See "Term at the Fed" (2004)
           by Laurence Meyer.) The dissenters were from the middle of the country, Dallas, Kansas City,
           and  Minneapolis, far away from the financial centers and the biggest banks.  So long as
           the Dollar is not weaker than a basket of other countries, I don't see how the Fed's policies
           will become restrictive before the Election next year.  Keep checking the US Dollar chart
           we show most nights.

           Even some gold stocks are rising now.  They have been lagging for more than a year. 
           It is the Public and foreigners who are buy the likes of NEM.  Professionals, as judged
           by the Closing Power, have been steady sellers.  If the red Distribuition were end and
           CLosing Power start an uptrend,  I would recommend it.  But right now, GLD is still
           preferred.  When you view Gold and SIlver stocks using TigerSOft understand that
           speculative stocks can go up a long way simply because of higher openings caused
           by overseas buyers and public speculators.  Using the Tiger RSQ (Relative Strength
           Quotient trends works well.)


===================================================================================
                                                                       Older Hotlines
====================================================================================

         8/18/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude 

         The recent Buys are not looking so good!  Not a big surprise to readers here...
         Hold Gold.  Sell any long stocks if their Closing Power uptrends are broken and
         Add to your Short Sales among the Bearish MINCP stocks.   The recent Peerless Buy
         signals will probably be reversed by a Sell S13 if the DJI closes below 10500. 

                                        The Velocity of This Decline Is Terrifying.



       
                                                              
        The severity of the decline today comes closer to causing an automatic Sell S13, which
        would force us to use the Extreme Bearish Mode.  NYSE down volume was almost 40:1.
        Volume picked up on the decline.  The market is hanging by a "Fed" and his low interest
        rates.  Gold and Bonds are the only strong groups.  This sure looks like the start of a
        big bear market.  9700 is the next support, it the market breaks down to new lows.
        It would seem none of the political leaders has read Keynes or studied the tragic effects
        of budget balancing in 1930, 1931 and 1932.. The financial stocks slumped badly today,
        just as they did in 2007 and 2008 before each big sell-off. 

 

        The main hope rests in the low interest rates.   That helps hold up the A/D Line.  But
        rising A/D Lines can follow the DJI down a long ways.  This was true in 1977 and 2001.
        Japan's 1990's experience is a warning about the limits of monetary policy.  There comes
        a tipping point past past which low interest rates can no longer keep stocks rising and they
        must fall.
                         http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/February-21-2009/index.html
                         http://www.tigersoft.com/tiger-blogs/February-04-2008/index.htm

        Professionals have shifted to the Sell and short side.  The MINCP stocks now outnumber
        the MAXCP stocks by 6:1.  The keys ETFs Closing Powers are declining.  See the QQQ
        below and the SPY and DIA in the page with the key charts.  Note the downtrend-line
        that starts at the July high and goes down through the recent peak.



                         
                                        A New Sell S13 To Switch To Bearish Mode
   
        I have been warning that we seem to be in a perfect financial sorm.  I won't repeat what I
        have been writing for the past few weeks.   But there comes a point in a very sharp decline
        where we must not only switch completely to a Sell, but also make it much more difficult
        to get a major Buy signal.  Presently, the Peerless software produces an automatic Sell S13
        when the decline accelerates past a threshold based on the annualized rate of change of the
        21-day ma.  I have shown here that when the AROC drops below -1.5 on a DJI decline down
        from a high, a bigger decline becomes a high probability.
                         http://tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/8-15-2011/index.html

         A new very simple rule to produce a Sell S13 should probably be introduced now.
         It would protect us from being caught in what would certainly become a much deeper
         decline.  This new Sell S13 would occur when the DJI falls more than 16% in only
         21-trading days after being at or close to its bull market high.  It is highly unusual.
         But you can see in the charts below its usefulness in 1929, 1937, 1940, and 1987.
         These are its only occurrences.   More details will be posted this weekend on the S13.  

1929

1937

1940

1987

    

====================================================================================
                                                      OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

  8/17/2011   
    DJI = 11410 +4  la/ma= .966   21-dmaROC= -1.181  P = -343 (-57 ) IP21= -.11 V= - 307 OP= -.141
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
    72 (+3)   MAXCP stocks -     Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                                      
    64  (+36) MINCP   stocks   -    Bearish MINCP Stocks    
                         (MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        At this point these are extended a long ways, so - use well-tested CP trendbreaks
                        to close out positions.  Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish
                        than the Public is.
         8   new highs on NASDAQ.   59 new lows on NASDAQ
        13   new highs NYSE                 9 new lows on NYSE

         8/17/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude 

        Peerless remains on Buys.  The A/D Lines are still rising Short-Term.  MAXCP Stocks
        Bullishly Outnumber MINCP Stocks.   

         Unfortunately, I have been warning that we seem to be in a perfect financial
         storm, brought on by political leaders in Europe and the US who show no knowledge
         of the 1930s  ( http://tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/83---2011/index.html )
         and that these Buys have occurred when the market was showing:
              1) unusually bearish downward momentum,
              2) much farther below the lower band than is safe and
              3) with the DJI having slipped more than 13.5% from its highs, usually an important
          bearish tipping point.

         Continue to hold Gold and hedge with bearish MINCP stocks against any long holdings
         in the bullish MAXCP stocks.  It is not good that the markets are falling back after
         merely brushing the resistance of their broken supports.  This frequently occurs on
         the first rally up after the first leg down in a new near market.  See more discussion
         of the importance of this rally's strength further below and at a new non-Public Blog
         I wrote tonight.
          http://tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/8-17/index.html  

         Bearishly, the DJI and QQQ have reached and are now falling back from the levels
         we expected would be resistance, using the simple principle that broken support
         become resistance.   I advised selling QQQ at the opening today (53.98).  Now we
         must wait for a retest of 11000 or even 10600 and a break in the new CLosing Power
         downtrend to buy.  See also how the QQQ reached and fell back from its longer-term
         declining CP trend that starts back in July.  This gives added importance to it.  More
         on this tomorrow night.

         Traders, here are some new trading ideas.  
         The first occurs when we draw (green) lines through the bottoms of the Tiger candle-
         stick charts of ETFs like the QQQ. below.   The futures are down more than 100 at this
         writing.  A break in the green uptrend seems very likely tomorrow,.

      

         The second key trendbreak is with the Tiger Closing Power.  See charts further
         below.  A CP uptrend-break in the QQQ seems imminent.

                                                 Calculating The Slope of the CP Uptrend
                                 To Show Exactly What It Will Take To Get A CP Trend-Break.

         This procedure will have to be inserted in the CP graphing program.  If the math below
         is too detailed, don't worry, the important CP trendbreaks are easily spotted
         on the Tiger charts.  Know that they are most important after non-confirmations
         of new price highs or lows, when the CP line is well-tested and when the CP breaks
         its trend after a key test of of support or resistance.  Here we have a potential CP
         uptrend-break following a test of resistance.

                                                             Y = MX + B
   
         I want here to show you how these CP trends are actually calculated and how
         we can even determine exactly how much the Close must be below the Opening
         the next day to break the current CP uptrend.

         The Closing Power uptrendline (as of 8/17/2011) starts on 8/8/2011 when
         Closing Power is said to be 0.  It rises through the low Closing Power point
         on its next dip's low.  This is the second day, 8/10/2011, when Closing Power is
         +.68.  The slope of the CP uptrend through these two points is .34/ daily
                                              ( CP(2) - CP(0) )   /  2
         Today, the 7th day of the CP uptrend, shows the CP slope (i)  crosses at 2.38,
         while the current CP(i) is 2.60.   The CLosing Power is still above the uptrend.
         But tomorrow the CP slope(i) will be 2.72.   Unless tomorrow's Closing Power
         is above 2.72, the CP uptrend will be broken.  The CP must rise by +.12 or more
         tomorrow or the CP uptrend will be broken.   (Slope(8) = CP(7)   )    

                                                                                                               Closing              CP
                                                                                                               Power(I)              Uptrend
         Day    Date           Close    Opening      Difference                 Cumulative        Slope(i) Line
         ( i )                           (LA(i)        OPNG(i)   (LA(i)-OPNG(i))         Difference(i)  
         0                                                                                                     0                             0    
         1          8/9/2011     53.03        51.31              +1.72                    +1.72                       .34    
         2          8/10/2011   50.86        51.82               -1.04                     +0.68                      .68    
         3          8/11/2011   53.1          51.58                +1.52                    +2.20                   1.02   
         4          8/12/2011   53.57       53.42                 +0.15                    +2.35                   1.36   
         5          8/15/2011   54.36       53.77                 +0.59                    +2.94                   1.70     
         6          8/16/2011    53.9        53.82                 +.08                       +3.02                   2.04
         7          8/17/2011    53.58      53.98                 -0.40                     +2.60                    2.38
         8                                                                                                                                   2.72


                       The Bearish Historical Significance of The DJI Failing To Rally Up
                                                     Past Recent Broken Support

        The DJIA rally faltered as it approached the 11500 broken support-now resistance level.
        The QQQ  also backed off its broken support at 54.  This is normal  What is important
        is that If traders get sufficiently discouraged by the market's inability to rise up past
        these levels of earlier broken support, a new selling wave can bring a deeper decline
        and a much longer bear market.  A minor pull-back is allowable but it should be brief,
        if we are going to see a good recovery and a bull market resume.

        It is very important for the bulls that the market not just get back to the recent
        highs near 12750-12800.  Clear new highs must follow in five months, with the A/D Line
        leading the way.  There have only been two cases of a 13.5% DJI decline where the bull
        market resumed quickly.  They occurred in the Summers of 1950 and 2010.  In both cases,
        the NYSE A/D Line led DJI prices to new highs.   See immediately below their two cases. 
       
        In the current market, the DJI has failed 15%.   That makes our case more bearish.
        But we are operating with Peerless Buys now   We will want to watch the NYSE
        A/D Line on the current rally.  It is still uptrending and today when the DJI closed
        essentially flat, there were 595 more up than down.  This is probably a result of
        the Fed's very low interest rates.

       See what the DJI looked like in the past as it tried to rally up after the first selling wave
        in what became bear markets.  http://tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/8-17/index.html
        In the 12 bear market declines since 1966, there were only 2 cases where there
        was no significant counter-trend relief rally.   The decline just got worse and worse. 
        In 7 cases, the DJI rallied back up to the next higher broken support levels, but then
        failed and a bear market followed..  In 3 cases, the DJI rallied up through broken
        support but then failed to make a clear new high and a bear market followed.

1950 - 13.5% DJI Delcine and Bull Market Resumption                                Note how the NYSE A/D Line led the DJI upwards.

2010 - 13.5% DJI Delcine and Bull Market Resumption                             NYSE A/D Line led prices upwards to more new highs.

DJIA  In quick succession, Peerless has brought a B12, a B7 and a B14.             I have warned that these occurred when the market was showing             unusually bearish downward momentum, was unusually far below the lower             band and with the DJI having dropped more than 13.5% from its highs,             usually an important bearish tipping point.         When the signals bunch together, to detail them, use the commands                      Operations + Trading Results - All Signals

DIA

SPY

QQQ

==================================================================================
                                                                      OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
    8/16/2011   
    DJI = 11405.93 -77  la/ma= .979   21-dmaROC= -.979  P = -287 (+29 ) IP21= -.087 V= - 287 OP= -.15
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
    69 (+31)   MAXCP stocks -     Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                                      
    28  (-41) MINCP   stocks   -    Bearish MINCP Stocks    
                         (MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        At this point these are extended a long ways, so - use well-tested CP trendbreaks
                        to close out positions.  Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish
                        than the Public is.
          2   new highs on NASDAQ.   30 new lows on NASDAQ
          3   new highs NYSE                 9 new lows on NYSE

         8/16/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude 

          ETFs' Closing Power and A/D Lines Still Rising Short-Term.  MAXCP Stocks Bullishly
          Outnumber MINCP Stocks.  Continue to hold Gold.

          QQQ's rise has stalled out at the 54 resistance.  Both its Opening and Closing Power
          are below their falling 21-day ma.   It has almost recovered 50% of what it lost in July
          and August.  That is a normal retracement amount.  So, I have to advise selling it,
          since it could not stay above 54.  

          More backing and filling between 11000 and 11500 on the DJI is likely.  I would
          think that the Fed will continue to prop up the market, despite charges of treason
          by the Texas Governor, himself a man who threatened succession in 2009.  The
          Fed is clearly charged with the responsibility of preventing a financial debacle.
          It was, after all, formed specifically to prevent another 1907-like financial panic.

          Consider hedging.  This gives the Peerless Buys more chance to bring a better
          recovery.   Buying some bullish MAXCP and selling short some bearish MINCP stocks
          seems prudent, considering the market's unusual weakness.   However, the steepness of
          the decline should be considered, in part, the result of the recklessly volatile trading the
          SEC now permits big brokerage computers and hedge funds using leveraged short ETFs
          and unlimited short sales on down-ticks. 

          Bank stocks like BAC, C and MS continue to look weak.  Nothing has really been done
          to prevent another 2008-like debacle.  This time, bailing them out will be much more
          difficult politically.  If they break down now, they will again pull much of the market down
          with them.      

BAC's counter-trend rally consists of a bearish rising wedge pattern that could easily decline sharply from here.

C - Notice how the Closing Power has not turned up.  It could easily breakdown. That would be bearish.

MS - The recent Closing Power action is much weaker than prices.

                                                              MacroEconomics 101

         Watch what the market reacts to.  I noticed that the DJI was nicely recovering from
         the early 100 point sell-off when the news spread that the three conservative leaders of
         Germany, France and the UK all together urged a balanced budget amendment to all Euro
         governments.  The market knows that this would likely turn a recession into a
         depression. The stock market understands that if we had had a balanced budget
         amendment in 2008, we would now be in a depression.  When the private sector will
         not create jobs, the government must to save capitalism from itself.  Google
         "How FDR Saved Capitalism."
                                    http://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-digest/article/7076
                                    http://www.slate.com/id/2203035/
                                   FDR saved capitalism – now it's Obama's turn - CSMonitor.com

                                 Merkel, Sarkozy propose eurozone government
                Merkel, Sarkozy want balanced budget laws in all eurozone countries
                                         On Tuesday August 16, 2011, 10:49 pm EDT
                                   

    

DJIA

DIA

SPY                                                            Tiger Index of SP-500 Stocks

QQQ

===================================================================================
                                                                     Older Hotlines
===================================================================================
     8/15/2011   
    DJI = 11482.90 +214  la/ma= .964  21-dmaROC= -.992 P = -317 (+91 ) IP21= -.089 V= - 285 OP= -.137
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
    69 (+31)   MAXCP stocks -     Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                                      
    28  (-41) MINCP   stocks   -    Bearish MINCP Stocks    
                         (MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        At this point these are extended a long ways, so - use well-tested CP trendbreaks
                        to close out positions.  Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish
                        than the Public is.
          8   new highs on NASDAQ.   17 new lows on NASDAQ
          12   new highs NYSE              4 new lows on NYSE

         8/15/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude 

          ETFs' Closing Power and A/D Lines Still Rising Short-Term  Let's see how the market
          does after the Opening. That is the key.   Gold's Closing Power turned up. 
          Will the Dollar break down?  A Falling Dollar Has Usually Been Good for Stocks.
          MAXCPs outnumber MINCPs: Pros are more bullish than bearish.   But the
          Momentum ( 21-dmaROC) is still steeply falling and that usually means basing
          is needed.  DJI: 11000 is expected to be support.  The 11500 resistance has
          almost been reached.. 

         A new B14 was added to the series of buy signals this reversal has produced.  Usually,
         the more Peerless Buy signals, the more bullish the situation.  The Buy B14 occurred
         because the ratio of NYSE up volume to down volume was so high today, 1963.9 to 39.9.
         Buy B14s after a sharp decline in 2007 three times signalled buying had returned sufficiently
         to bring a recovery to the previous highs or upper band, though some backing and filling
         was needed. 

                                                             Rate of the Decline (Tiger's AROC)


         The speed of the decline remains a technical problem.  Tthe Annualized Rate of Change
         (AROC) of the 21-dma did not drop below -1.0 in 2007 when the B14 produced rallies..
         This year it reached -1.7 and now stands at -1.0.  From Sept-2008 to March 2009, one
         of the warning signs then that we mentioned on the Hotline was that the AROC fell
         below -1.5.  It takes a very big decline to drop it down so much.  A history of the 13
         occurrences since 1929 of the AROC dropping below -1.5 shows that it would have
         been best to sell at this point in 11 cases.  Only in 2 cases did this drop bring a rally
         without a significantly deeper decline.   See my Tiger non-Public Blog of 8/15/2011,
         Momentum's Tpping Point: When Does A Correction become A Bear Market.

         Look next at the 2007 chart with 3 good short-term Buy B14s.  It will be asking a lot of
         the market to reach our upper band, but a move by the DJIA back to the resistance of
         the falling 21-day ma is not out of the question.  More likely we will see the DJI tag the
         broken support of the March lows just above 11500 and then fall back to re-test 11000. 
         At this writing the DJIA futures are down 69. Only a minor pullback is expected, as long
         as the QQQ Closing Power uptrend is intact.  Take QQQ trading profits if its Closing
         uptrend is broken.         
        

                                    Buy B14s in 2007 Brought  Recoveries to Upper Band.


 

Current PEERLESS Signals and DJIA

                                        A Warning from the NASDAQ

         We do want to see the NASDAQ do better.   Though it was up 47.21, and that seems
         very good for the NASDAQ, the DJI rose 214, relatively more.  When the Tiger's chart
         of the NASDAQ is graphed, we see our "NASDJI" relative strength indicator.  it has
         turned (red) negative. This is a warning that traders again favor safety and dividends
         to the unsure prospects speculative gains.  The NASDJI turning negative on a rallyh
         usually means the rally has definite limits.  For now, the  NASDAQ-100's (QQQ) blue
         CLosing Power is still rising.  So, is its brown Relative Strength Quotient (RSQ). 

                                                  3 Straight Up Days

         What was most impressive was the QQQ got back above 54, the broken support level.  
         It needs tomorrow to stay above 54 to keep the good 3-day rally alive.  Many short-term
         traders take profits after 3 straight up-days.  Our program shows that the QQQ was up
         61.9% of the times for an average 3-day gain of 0.4% on the fourth day after three straight
         up days.  This is for the 21 occurrences in the last year.
                  ( Peercomm + Charts-2011 + Daily Stocks + QQQ + Operations + Streaking Daily Probabilities )
         The same statistics for each year since 1999 show too much variability to generalize
         except to say that a low percentage up on the 4th day after 3 consecutive-day rallies,
         as was seen in 2008, is a sure sign of a bear market. A pronounced pattern (72.2%)
         in which the 4th day is UP after 3 straight up-days was a key bullish attribute of the 2009
         bull market.

                                                    After   3 Up Days                                                 After 3 Down Days
          QQQ                       Pct of time              Avg 3-day                           Pct of time                 Avg 3-day
           Year                       4th day is Up         Gain after 3 days up       4th day is Down Gain after 4 days down
          --------                      -------------------           ------------------------------        ------------------------    ----------------------------------
          1999                       50.0%                       +0.4%                                  25.0%                       +1.6%
          2000                       62.5%                       -0.9%                                   36.9%                       +0.1%
          2001                       52.9%                       -0.6%                                   33.3%                       +1.0%
          2002                       42.9%                       -0.9%                                   55.0%                       +0.5%
          2003                       47.1%                       +0.8%                                  62.5%                       +1.0%
          2004                       38.9%                         0.0%                                  60.0%                       +0.5%
          2005                       43.8%                       +0.3%                                  38.5%                       +0.1
          2006                       41.2%                       -0.2%                                  63.6%                       -0.8%
          2007                       64.0%                          0.0                                     20.0%                       +1.4%
          2008                       33.3%                       -1.9%                                  35.0%                      -0.4%    
          2009                       72.2%                       +1.0%                                22.2%                        +2.1%
          2010                       55.0%                       +0.3%                                  50.0%                      +1.0%     
          2010-2011             61.9%                       +0.4%                                  41.2%                       +0.9%

NASDAQ  - The S4s are automatic.  They show a negative non-confirmation (NNC) by the          Accum. Index and NASDJI Relative Strength Indicator on a rally 3% over the 21-dma.          The NASDAQ, unlike the QQQ, has not been able to get past the broken support          at 2600.  Watch to see if it can.   That would be very constructive.  On the other hand,          a reversal back down from it, would suggest a need to re-test the lows.

QQQ

 

Our Solar Stock Speculation - RSOL

====================================================================================
                                                                   OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

    8/12/2011   
   DJI = 11269 +126   la/ma= .942  21-dmaROC= -1.158 P = -408 (+124 ) IP21= -.106 V= - 324 OP= -.144
    BREADTH STATISTICS:
    38 (-20)   MAXCP stocks -     Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                                      
    59  (-70) MINCP   stocks   -   Bearish MINCP Stocks    
                         (MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        At this point these are extended a long ways, so - use well-tested CP trendbreaks
                        to close out positions.  Sell S7s occur when Professionals are much more bearish
                        than the Public is.
          2   new highs on NASDAQ.   20 new lows on NASDAQ
          6   new highs NYSE                19 new lows on NYSE

         8/12/2011 ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
         DIA    SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ    GLD    SLV    Crude    

                    While the QQQ Closing Power is Rising, Nimble Traders Should Be In QQQ Long.
                    However, another test by the DJI of its lows is likely.

                    Be sure to cover short sales when their Closing Power downtrends are broken.
                    High Accumulation High Caps are apt to be the best upside performers.

                    Bears, be careful here.  This Summer we have still not seen a serious NYSE A/D
                    Line bearish divergence from the DJI.  Usually such bearish A./D divergences
                    and our normal Sell S9s occur just before big declines of 20% or more since 1929.

         New Buy B7.   Again we get a hard-to-believe buy signal right after this sharp 15%
         decline in the DJI.  It is based on the idea that we should be buyers on the next decline
         to the lower band after a Buy B12.     Unlike the Buy B12 and Buy B14 (which I dismissed).
         the earlier Buy B7s have previously occurred as far below the lower band as we are now
         and with as much downward momentum.   Here are cases with the DJI


                 Date of B7  DJI         Gain      Reversing Sell   Date          DJI     Short Gain
               ----------------   -------     ------------     ----------------------   -------------     ---------  -----------------
                   10/23/1933   88.1       +12.3%               Sell S12      12/1/1933     98.9         1.7%
                            la/ma    ann.roc  P-I                     IP21       V-I     Opct
                          .934   -1.193      -103  (56)         -.12     -370 -.086                      No Paper Loss     
                   DJI rallied to resistance of neckline in overhead head and shoulders, fell back to
                   a second Buy B7 anf then rose past upper band.
                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  12/11/74    595.35         +42.0%           Sell S9          8/29/75           845.34   
                             la/ma       ann.roc     P-I                    IP21       V-I     Opct
                             .933       -1.75     -314 (-29)        -.238        -4      -.397                           
                  DJI rose immediately  and then rallied strongly. Note how low the P-Indicator
                  was in this instance.
                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  8/11/11      11269 +126 
                            la/ma      ann.roc      P-I                    IP21       V-I     Opct
                             .942       -1.158     -408 (+124     -.106       - 324    -.144


         The QQQ (53.57) is the leader of the 3 key general market ETFs. Its QQQ/DJI (brown)
         Relative Strength Line is rising,    If it can surpass 54 on a closing basis, I would  remain
         short-term bullish and stay long any QQQ trading position.  But if the QQQ falters
         on Monday or Tuesday and fails to get past 54, expect the QQQ's  Closing Power
         uptrend to be broken. That will be a short-term Sell. 

                                           More Tests for a Bottom Are Usually Needed

         Have we seen a bottom?  We might want to look at how the DJI bottomed after the 10%-
         15% mini crashes of October 1978, October 1979, March 1980, Janaury 1990, October 1997
         and January 2000.    These 10%-12%declines would probably have been a more rapid
         15% free-fall, If the easy-to use leveraged short selling ETfs had been present then along 
         with the right to sell short on down-ticks, as is legal now.   Note that the 1978 bottom
         required four tests of 790 level before a rally, the 1979 bottom needed 3 tests of 800,
         the 1980 bottom had to have 3 tests of 760 as did the March 2000 bottom of 10000. Even
         the Jan-Feb 1990 10% decline needed a second test of 2550 a month after the initial
         plunge, before the DJI could resume its advance. 

         October 1997's  bottom did see a rapid spring-back upwards all the way to the declining 21-day
         ma.   The Accumulation Index hardly went negative in the 1997 decline, unlike now.  There
         were multiple Peerless buy signals and the Closing Power for the 1997-SPY reversed itself
         dramatically.  This time around the SPY's CLosing Power is rising, but not nearly so
         quickly as in October 1997.

         I have warned that most often after such a steep sell-off, notably 1940, 1950, 1990 and 1998,
         the DJI retests the first set of lows and even breaks below them.  So, until the QQQ gets
         back above 54, more new lows is a scary scenario we cannot afford to dismiss
         even with the new Peerless Buys.   The jury is still out.  Except for nimble traders,
         I have suggested mostly waiting on the sideline is the prudent thing to do. A close by the
         QQQ above 54 would help remove the bearish scenario of 1940, 1950, 1990 and 1998.
         A retest of the lows would still seem likely though before a rally back above the 65-day
         ma is likely.

         But for now, rallies are under way to the points of breakdown for the DIA and SPY.
         The QQQ has already reached the resistance created by the June low at 54.  A further
         move up by the QQQ past this resistance will be bullish, but a turn down on Monday
         by it, will bring new selling by chartists.  Mondays this past year have been the most
         bearish day of the week.  Since 1965, the DJI has risen only 46.7% of the time in the
         week after August 13th (next Sunday), but over the next two weeks it has risen 55.6%
         of the time.  (Peercomm + Charts-2011 + Runs/Setups + DJI Future based on past Seasonality + 8 + 13 ).

         I would say that the seasonality and the charts favor a pullback and quite possiblu a
         a new low.   If the lows hold, a the suprise move might be to the upside. 
  
                      QQQ            7/28/2010 - 8/12/2011   Avg. Daily Trading Results
                      (Peercomm + Charts-2011 + Daily Stocks + QQQ + Ind-3 + Day of Week Trading.Results).
                                          Pct Up     Avg  Gain
                     Monday    48.9%      -0.2%
                      Tuesday   51.8%      +0.1%
                      Wednes.  61.1%      +0.0%
                      Thurs.       61.1%      -0.1%
                      Friday      49.0%       -0.1%

       
                  PROFESSIONALS HAVE COVERED AND ARE BUYING VERY SELECTIVELY

          The Closing Powers are still rising for the DIA, QQQ and SPY.  I believe this shows
          Professionals have shifted to covering and some buying.  The quick decline in the
          number of MINCP stocks (those with Closing Power at new lows) from over 1000 at the
          beginning of the week to only 59 shows that they have locked in profits on their
          short sales, as we have mostly.   But since the number of MAXCP stocks (showing
          Closing Power new highs) is still under 60, I would say that Professionals are
          very careful in what they are buying, if anything.  And it's not hard to understand why.
          Many stocks are down sharply from their levels 6 months ago.  4 of first 9 days this
          August have seen the DJI down more than 275 points.  There are too many air pockets
          to invest prudently.
                                        8/2/2011   DJI -276
                                        8/4/2011   DJI -513
                                        8/8/2011   DJI -634
                                        8/10/2011 DJI -520

                   WHAT STOCKS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PURCHASE?

           Safer blue-chip DJI and SP-500 stocks with highest AI/200 have done the best since
           the reversal upwards, over the last 5 days.  As a group, the top ones do much better than
           the lowest.  Some of the lowest AI/200 stocks have bounced back, but most have
           rebounded quite weakly.   Use Peercomm + Older Charting + Ranking Results +   
           User Set Ranking + 4 +2

                            SP-500   Stock          AI/200           4-day Recovery Pct
                            ---------------------           ----------          -------------------------------
                            COG                            181                +21%
                            ED   (utility)                 176                +6%
                            ABC                             174               +10%
                            BCR                             174               +6%
                            EQT                              174              +13%
|                            ...
                            TGT                               50                +4%
                            WFR                              50                +31% (shows why we cover when Closing
                                                                                                  Power breaks its downtrend.
                            BBY                              41                +2%
                            MBI                               40                +2%
                            YHOO                           37                +22% (shows why we cover when Closing
                                                                                                  Power breaks its downtrend.)


                            DJI   Stock                  AI/200           4-day Recovery Pct
                            ---------------------           ----------          -------------------------------
                            CVX                            165 (#1)        +6%

               Below from the highest Accumulation stocks (ACCUMHOR in our data base)
               are the stocks whose Closing Power is zig-zagging up in the manner of the
               QQQ.   Using the CP uptrendline as a point of reversal makes these stocks
               more appealing as long trades now.

                                SPECULATIVE SOLAR STOCK SHOWING INSIDER BUYING

                The White House is promoting solar energy jobs through big government
                 loan guarantees. RSOL is the solar stock showing the biggest recent surge
                 of Accumulation. It is up 29% in the last 4 trading days.
                

                                y

DJIA    New Buy B7 today.  See below.  Resistance - 11500

DIA

SPY

QQQ