TIGER
HOTLINE 
william_schmidt@hotmail.com
There will be a new HOTLINE ADDRESS on Monday night.
Look for an email with new address.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
A Guide To Profitably Using The
Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
TigerSoft and
Peerless Daily Hotline
(C)
1985-2012 William Schmidt, Ph.D. www.tigersoft.com
All rights
strictly reserved.
|
NOTES: ---> To renew this Hotline, order here $350 (check) - $360(Visa/MC)  IMPORTANT - The server
that hosts this site is now sometimes slow or unavailable briefly as I post updates. It may be necessary in an emmergency to use the other web-page at tigersoftware.com If that happens, I will post the Tiger Data on www.tigersoftware.com/92-12HL/index.html instead of here. Notice the difference is only a matter of adding "soft" to "tigersoft". It will be there only if I have problem here. |
4/7/2011 Hotline
KEY
CHARTS and INDUSTRY INDEXES
DIA SPY
QQQ DJIA-Peerless
TigerDJI TigerSPY TigerQQQ
GLD SLV Crude Oil IWM-Russell-2000
Key Values - Peerless-DJIA
DJI 13060 -15 la/ma = 0.994 21dmaROC= .202 P= 78 P-Ch= -103 IP21=.121 V= +14 OP= .129
BREADTH STATISTICS: Advance= 1300 Declines= 1703 UpVol = 230.72 DownVol= 481.63
Key Stocks: AAPL and 4 highest priced DJI
stocks: IBM, CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
203 MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks Bullish plurality.
--->
96 MINCP stocks
Bearish MINCP Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power
making new highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 31
new
highs on NASDAQ. 29 new lows on NASDAQ Bullish
plurality.
---> 28
new
highs NYSE 25 new lows on NYSE
4/7/2012 - Hotline ---- Peerless Sell S1 and Sell S15 Signals Now Operate.
Stay hedged with "bearish MINCP" stocks or short DIA if you are
aggressive.
This has not been a year for DJI declines, yet. Presidential Election
years tend to limit or
postpone declines of more than 10% to the next year. Still it is not
true to say that there
are no significant decliues during a Presidential Election year. Since
1944, there have been
5 declines of more than 10% in the last 10 months of a Presidential Election
year. The period
before 1944 was more volatile. There were 7 such deep declines between
1916 and 1940.
March and April tops since 1980 produced just one drop of more than 10% in
the 5 declines
of more than 5%. These "minor" declines averaged 7.6%
sell-offs. The DJI has, so far,
peaked at 13,233. A 7.6% decline from this peak would bring a drop to
13232, about the point where the
DJI broke out in late Decmber. Such a drop here would have take out the
rising 65-day
ma now at 12879. We are likely to get a Buy B11 on a drop to that point
unless the sell-off
cuts immediately and decisively below that level. This is a
possibility because 13000 is
setting up as a well-tested support. Its violation is apt to bring more
of a decline than there
would have before the recent tests of it which now have established a highly
visible well-tested support-line
below which Sell Stops will be triggered.
1988 4/13 - 5/19 -8%
1996 3/8 - 5/7 -5%
2000 4/18 - 5/24 -9%
2004 3/7 - 4/19 -8.5%
2008 After Jan-March sell-off, 5/2 -11/20 -42%
Here is their history since 1912.
No. Avg.Decline
1912-2008
March tops
4 13.9%
April tops
6 10.8%
May tops
2
7.0%
June tops
3 10.8%
July tops
3
6.0%
August tops
6 6.25%
September tops 5 `13.2%
October tops
3 8.3%
November tops 5
9.2%
Tops before declines of more than 5%
1912 9/30 - 12/18
-9%
1916 After Jan-July
sell-off, 11/21-12/28 -14.5%
1920 After Jan-Feb
sell-off, 3/15-12/22 -37%
1924 2/5 - 5/28
-13% 8/19 - 10/14 -6%
1928 5/4 - 6/19 -9% 11/28 - 12/10 -11%
1932 After Jan-June sell-off,
9/7 - 12/2 -30%
1936 4/6 to 4/29 -11 % 8/13 - 8/21 -5%
11/17-12/21 -5%
1940 4/8 to 6/10- -26 %
1944 7/10 to 9/14 -5%
1948 6/15 to 9/27 - 9% 10/26 to 11/30 -9%
1952 3/31 to 5/1 -5% 8/8 to 11/22 -6%
1956 4/6 to 5/28 -10% 8/2 to 11/28 -10.5%
1960 4/18 to 4/29 -5% 6/9 to 10/24 -13.5%
1964 no declines of more than
4.5%
1968 After Jan-March
sell-off, 7/15 to 8/9 -6%
1972 5/30 - 7/21 -6% 8/15 - 10/16 -5%
1976 4/21 to 6/9 -5% 9/21 - 11/10 -9%
1980 2/13 to 3/27 -16% 9/22 - 10/30 -6%
11/21-12/11 -9%
1984 After Jan-March sell-off, 5/2
- 7/24 -8.5% 8/21-10/10 -5% 11/5 - 12/7 -6.5%
1988 4/13 - 5/19 -8% 7/6 - 8/23 -8% 10/21 -
11/16 -6.5%
1992 6/2 - 10/9 -10%
1996 3/8 - 5/7 -5% 5/22 - 7/24 -7.5%
2000 After Jan-March sell-off, 4/18
- 5/24 -9% 9/6-10/18 -12%
2004 3/7 - 4/19 -8.5% 7/28 - 10/13 -5%
2008 After Jan-March sell-off,
5/2 -11/20 -42%
2012
4/5/2012
The DJI is at the well-tested support of its rectangle pattern. The Closing
Powers for DIA, QQQ and SPY
are all rising. A short-term rally attempt is likely, but with the
Peerless Sell signals, a decline to 12750 and
the rising 65-day ma still lies ahead. The bearish MINCP stocks have
done well for us. I would stay
hedged with them. The exceptional advance seen in AAPL has, no doubt,
boosted the markets. If we
take AAPL out of the NASDAQ-100, we get the Tiger QQQ-99 Index shown below,
in which there has been
no steep advance to a series of new highs. Will AAPL's rise continue?
Professionals are still busy
buying, if we judge from AAPL's still rising Closing Power. The 14-day
ma seems to show how deep only
temporary declines drop the stock. Our theories hold that when BOTH
Opening and CLosing Powers are
rising, a stock is most likely to take-off and escape gravity for a
while. Besides AAPL, there are 5 other
QQQ "Both Up" Stocks.
The short-term bullish BOTH-UP condition gives
aggressive traders and call buyers good stocks to play
on the long side until their Closing Power uptrends are broken.
NASDAQ-100 BOTH Up Stocks (A Power-Ranker
Screening Criteria)
BBBY Bed Bath and Beyond AI/200=121 (low) IP21=.278
broke out above top of price channel.
FOSL Fossil Inc - Breakout.
PRGO AI/200=123 (too low), IP21=-.057 (bearish)
ROST- Ross Stores - Powerful uptrend. AI/200=164
(bullish) IP21=.29 (bullish)
SBUX -Starbucks - Running! AI/200=144 (OK)
IP21= +.414 (bullish)
 |
 |
 |
QQQ- without AAPL
DJI-30
DIA - Rising Closing Power
=====================================================================================
OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================
4/4/2011 Hotline
Announcement - San Diego users. Because of Easter
Sunday, there will be no
San Diego Tiger Meeting this weekend. The next will be the first Saturday of May.
KEY
CHARTS and INDUSTRY INDEXES
DIA SPY
QQQ DJIA-Peerless
TigerDJI TigerSPY TigerQQQ
GLD SLV Crude Oil IWM-Russell-2000
DJI 13075
-125 la/ma =
0.996 21dmaROC= .287 P=
180 P-Ch=+32 IP21=.095 V= +2
OP= .177
BREADTH STATISTICS: Advance= 597 Declines= 2454 UpVol = 120.84 DownVol= 709.22
Key Stocks: AAPL and 4 highest priced DJI
stocks: IBM, CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
138 (-111) MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks Bullish plurality.
--->
84 ( +4 ) MINCP stocks
Bearish MINCP Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power
making new highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 16
new
highs on NASDAQ. 37 new lows on NASDAQ Bearish plurality.
---> 14
new
highs NYSE 37 new lows on NYSE Bearish plurality.
4/4/2012 - Hotline ---- Peerless Sell S1 and Sell S15 Signals Now Operate.
The DJI dropped just below the support of the rising
21-day ma. With the 21-day rate
of change (AnnRoc = .287) above +.07 and the Tiger Accum. Index (+.095)
above +.07,
support should be good here briefly. The key ETFs' Closing Powers
are all still uptrending.
Professionals are not yet jumping ship.
See also the rectangle pattern the DJI has recently formed.
I have circled this in green. 12990 is the support in this
pattern. The DJI rebounded
from just above this level intra-day today. These patterns are
usually "continuation"
patterns. Eventually, there will probably an upside breakout.
Immediately ahead, we
should see a rally attempt.
But with Peerless on a Sell, we ought to see a test of the rising
65-day ma, which is still
300 points lower. So, stay hedged and stay short DIA or some
foreign ETFs for now,
like Brazil (EWZ) or Russia.
There are more
bearish signs today. the number
of new lows has risen above
the number of new highs. This is bearish so soon after the DJI
has been making
new 12-month highs. It shows there are a large number of stocks
displaying real
weakness, at a time when the DJI's highs are giving investors a feeling
of complacency.
Tiger Index of NASDAQ-100 Stocks
We see an Optimized Red Sell, bearish head/shoulders and
a test now of the rising price-uptrendline.
In addition, we see head and shoulders patterns forming, but not yet
completed, in
the Tiger Index of the NASDAQ-100 (above), in transportation stocks, in last years' best
performing stocks. In additon, the Tiger Index of Finance Stocks shows a very
weak A/D Line now, which confirms our Index'es drop below its 65-day
ma. The
weakness in Gold and strength in the Dollar show international
DEFLATION is a growing
factor. That may hurt the US stock market and the US economy.
Look at the dramatic drop
in the Tiger Index of Foreign ETFs. A deliberate policy of
Deflation is being conducted in Europe, as leaders there follow the
Austrian
School of Economics prescription for dealing with a recession, namely
laying-off
public employees and cutting government spending. The House of
Representatives
in the US under Republican control are pushing the same policies in the
US. My
take on these policies, and this was the subject of my dissertation at
Columbia University,
is that they are very dangerous when an economy is already very weak
and unemployment high.
8/29/2011 US Stagnation and The
Gathering Global Recession
2/4/2010 -
Will
Obama Cause Another 1937 CRASH?
Immediately below is the
Tiger Index of Foreign ETFs. Prices there have fallen back
to the key 65-day ma. At the same time, there has been a steep
drop in the last two days
of the number of foreign ETFs that are above their 65-day ma.
Drops like this were
leading signs of market weakness in 2011.
The Tiger Index of Foreign ETFs is testing key Support Now.
=====================================================================================
OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================
4/3/2011 Hotline
KEY CHARTS and INDUSTRY INDEXES
DIA
SPY QQQ
DJIA-Peerless TigerDJI TigerSPY
TigerQQQ GLD SLV Crude Oil IWM-Russell-2000
DJI 13200
-65 la/ma = 1.007 21dmaROC= .248 P= 148 P-Ch= -15 IP21=.077 V= -7
OP= .175
BREADTH STATISTICS: Advance= 1069 Declines= 1972 UpVol = 234.98 DownVol= 572.4
Key Stocks: AAPL and 4 highest priced DJI
stocks: IBM, CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
249 (-51) MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP
Stocks Bullish
plurality.
--->
80 ( +16 ) MINCP stocks Bearish MINCP Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power
making new highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 46
new
highs on NASDAQ. 19 new lows on NASDAQ Bullish plurality.
---> 69
new
highs NYSE 15 new lows on NYSE
4/3/2012 Consider Low Priced
High Accummulation speculations in
the third wave
general market advance since 2009. Trade these with the trend of the 21-day ma of
Closing Power
4/3/2012 - Hotline ---- Peerless Sell S1 and Sell S15 Signals Now Operate.
Stay Hedged with Bearish MINCP Stocks...
and Long the Most Accumulated, Professionally Bought MAXCP Stocks.
Short DIA now only if you will Be Satisfied with a 4% decline
in DIA and are willing to
work with a protective Buy Stop on Shorts if DIA closes above 13325.
The DJI has turned down for the third time from 13325. This gives
short-term traders who
go short a way to know when to reverse and go long, namely a new high
above this level,
preferably on a closing basis. Our studies, however, show that
flat tops usually bring breakouts
to the upside. I would think that will happen if the next test of
13000 to the downside is successful.
Even if the DJI ruptures 13000, it should still find support near the
rising 65-day ma, now at
12800. A Buy signal will occur there unless the DJI knifes
quickly through that level.
The A/D Line for the DJI and the CLosing Power for DIA are still
rising. These considerations
have made me suggest hedging by shorting Bearish Mincp stocks rather
than DIA or SPY.
In addition, I think it's important to understand the role of
seasonality, in particular, the four
year Presidential cycle. During a Presidential Election year in
March and April, Sell S1s and
Sell S15s do not have special bearish power. There have been 9
cases. The Average DJI
decline when reversed by a Peerless Buy was 4%. A 4% decline in
the DJI from here would
take it to 12672, slightly below the rising 65-day ma. Here
are the cases:
S15s in Rising Market in A
Presidential Election Year,
March and April Only
Chronologically Organized, 1929-2012
^ = Reversing Sell.
S15s
Next Reversing Sell Signal
Date
DJI
la/ma ann
roc. P-I P-ch AI V-I
OPct Date
DJI Gain
Signal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/1/36
158.9 1.018 .206
-40 4 -.097 -265 .207
5/5/36 148.6 +6.5% B2
DJI rallied to 160.90 on 4/7/1936 before falling below
lower band
-------
and reaching 143.70 on 4/29/1936.
V-Indicator
went more deeply negative on the rally.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
^4/6/72 959.44 1.02 .159 -70 15 .036
-1 .086 7/18/72 911.72 +5.0% B2
^4/14/92 3306.13 1.017
.256 -59 40
.033 -10
.231 8/21/92
3254.10 +1.6% B2
Simultaneous S9. DJI rallied to 3413.21 six weeks later and
then fell below the first tagging of the lower band.
The V-Indicator rose, turned positive and the DJI decline did
not start until the V-Indicator
turned negative again.
-------------
^3/24/76 1009.21 1.024
.192 -64 10 -.033 -1
.293 10/5/76
966.76 +4.2% B2
-------
Simultaneous Sell S9. DJI fell only to rising 65-dma and rallied to gather more
Sells near 1000 before declining.
The V-Indicator turned slighlty positive for a few days and then fell
back into negative territory.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/21/76 1011.02
1.019 .345 -1 15 .038 -1 .07 10/5/76 966.76 +4.4% B2^4/14/92 3306.13
1.017 .256 -59 40 .033 -10 .231 8/21/92 3254.10 +1.6% B2
S1s in Rising Market in A
Presidential Election Year
March and April Only
Chronologically Organized, 1929-2012
4/10/1956
DJI LA/MA Ann.ROC P-I IP21 Opct
510 .998 .285 -41 .052 .346 Gain = +5.8%
DJI fell in two months to the lower band. No paper loss.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
7/6/1988
DJI LA/MA Ann.ROC P-I IP21 Opct
2130.16 1.006 .309 .82 .053 .025 Gain = +3.0%
The DJI fell to the lower band and then to best support line.
No Paper loss.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
4/6/2000
DJI LA/MA Ann.ROC P-I IP21 Opct
11114.27 1.037 1.404 128 .075 -.062 Gain = +4.8%
DJI declined to lower band in two months. No paper loss.
DJIS first rallied to 11400 and then fell quickly to the
lower band and a Buy B2. Paper Loss of 3%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No=3 Avg.Gain = 4.5%
=====================================================================================
OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================
4/2/2011
Hotline
KEY CHARTS and INDUSTRY INDEXES
DIA
SPY QQQ
DJIA-Peerless TigerDJI TigerSPY
TigerQQQ GLD SLV Crude Oil IWM-Russell-2000
DJI 13264
+52 la/ma = 1.013 21dmaROC= .261 P= 163 P-Ch= +120
IP21=.0u76 V= 0 OP= .189
BREADTH STATISTICS: Advance= 2283 Declines=765 UpVol = 601.83 DownVol= 151.4Key Stocks: AAPL and 4 highest priced DJI stocks: IBM, CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
300
(+171) MAXCP stocks Bullish
MAXCP Stocks Bullish.
---> 64 ( -6 ) MINCP stocks Bearish MINCP
Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power
making new highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 108
+78 new
highs on NASDAQ. 16 (+8) new lows on NASDAQ Bullish.
---> 127
(+77) new
highs NYSE 7 (-1) new lows on NYSE
4/22012 Consider Low Priced
High Accummulation speculations in
the third wave
general market advance since 2009. Trade these with the trend of the 21-day ma of
Closing Power
4/2/2012 - Hotline Stay Hedged rather than Short An ETF
I have
suggested being long the most bullish MAXCP and bulging high Accumulation stocks
and short some of the most bearish MINCP stocks.
Hedging has been preferred to shorting
an ETF because the NYSE A/D Line is uptrending and far too
strong to allow us to trust the
current Peerless Sell S15s and S1s, which are at their
weakest in the first half of a a
Presidential Election year. That the Closing Powers
for the DIA, SPY and QQQ are still
rising also shows that Professionals remain bullish.
Most of the time, 3 month DJI advances
in a new year, like we now see, end with new DJI highs that
are not confirmed by the NYSE
A/D Line making a new high. But, if anything, far
from lagging it, the NYSE A/D Line now is leading
the DJI. In this situation, we just have to wait
patiently for the NYSE A/D Line to break its
uptrend.
It's true that the S1 and S15 Peerless Sells have not been
reversed. But the momentum in
the NASDAQ and QQQ are way too strong to try to call a halt
to the rally. In addition, our
low priced stock selections are still mostly very strong.
Lastly, the DJI has risen
4 months now without a decline deeper than 2% below its
21-day ma. History shows that
it can go longer than 6 months this way. See a new study I am writing about this.
While the DJI's momentum now is strong, it is
probably not strong enough presently
to give us a new Buy signal, except possibly a Buy
B10 price breakout close above 13300,
and that is uncertain. Usually more hesistation
is needed just beneath the point of
breakout. Reversing momentum Buy B15s and B18s
are unlikely now because the P-Indicator
did turn negative briefly a month ago and the 21-day
ma did briefly turned down then, too.
See how S15 was overcome in 1954
by subsequent flat-topped breakout and Momentum Buy B18
THE NASDAQ-100's Momentum Is Unusually Bullish.
The QQQ's
CLosing Power Uptrend SHows Professionals Are Still Buying.
====================================================================================
OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================
3/30/2011
Hotline
DJI 13212
+66 la/ma = 1.01 21dmaROC= .211 P= 42 P-Ch= -28 IP21=.062 V= -30
OP= .115
BREADTH STATISTICS: Advance= 1750 Declines=1280 UpVol = 641.58 DownVol= 317.06
The
DJI is caught in a little triangle bounded by resistance at 13340 and support at the
rising
21-day ma just above 13000. The Peerless
Sells suggest a test of the rising purple 65-day ma. at 12800.
This coming week, the price of Crude Oil could have a big impact on the DJI. Crude Oil
has
retreated to its 65-day ma. and violated its 6
month uptrend. A further decline will be bearish
for two big oil stocks int he DJI, XOM and CVX. A reversal by
Crude Oil back upwards will help them,
though if the rally is too steep, it may
bearishlly signal we are closer to a new mid-Eastern war
or it may tip the world economy back into
recession.
Key Stocks: AAPL
and 4 highest priced DJI stocks: IBM,
CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
129
(-40) MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP
Stocks Bullish.
---> 70 ( -8 ) MINCP stocks Bearish MINCP
Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power
making new highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 30
new
highs on NASDAQ. 7 (-9) new lows on NASDAQ Bullish.
---> 50
(+28) new
highs NYSE 8 (...) new lows on NYSE
3/30/2012 Consider Low Priced
High Accummulation speculations in
the third wave
general market advance since 2009. Trade these with the trend of the 21-day ma of
Closing Power
Remarkable QQQ Uptrend
3/30/2012 - Hotline
Sell S15/Sell S1 = Peerless Sells on DJI. The low level of
Accumulation will also work
to hold back the DJI. but the NYSE A/D Line is still rising,
showing the benfefit
of low interest rates to both dividend and a select group of
speculative stocks.
The Closing Powers are still rising are rising for the DIA, QQQ and SPY.
IWM's is falling.
The Russell-2000 (IWM) is struggling but is still above its 21-day ma, too.
There is a
vast difference between the high performance of the favored and sponsored
stocks
and those under heavy distribution which are being sold down by
professionals.
Take advantage of the difference between the Bullish MAXCP
Stocks and the
Bearish MINCP Stocks Meanwhile, the IWM chart below shows that most
stocks have been
going sidewise for the last six weeks.
.
Professionals Remain More Bullish than
Bearish.
There are still more MAXCP than
MINCP stocks, showing Professionals are bullish more
stocks than they are bearish. I have suggested hedging by being
long some of the bullish
MAXCP stocks and short some of the bearish MINCP stocks, so long as
their Closing Power
trends confirm. The NASDAQ-100 and QQQ have been out-performing
the DJI by as much as
10% over last 50-trading days. The QQQ's uptrend is
over-extended, but still intact.
A/D Line is at a high inflection point.
The NYSE A/D Line has fallen to its underlying
uptrendline. This is a point from which
prices can move up or down significantly.
I would prefer to wait for a breakdown in the NYSE
A/D Line or the CLosing Power uptrends before
shorting DIA, though weaker ETFs like
Brazil's and Russia's can be shorted because of the Peerless Sells. (See these
charts below)
Brazil - EWZ |
Russia - RSX |
DIA CLOSING POWER IS STILL RISING
Optimized Red Sell - 14 Day Stochastics.
=====================================================================================
OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================
3/29/2011
Hotline
DJI 13143
+20 la/ma = 1.006 21dmaROC= .177 P= 70 P-Ch= +16
IP21=.035 V= -29 OP=
.106
low
BREADTH
STATISTICS:
Advance= 1198 Declines=1823 UpVol = 332.67 DownVol= 470.55
Key Stocks: AAPL
and 4 highest priced DJI stocks: IBM,
CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
169 (+39) MAXCP stocks Bullish
MAXCP Stocks Bullish.
---> 78 ( -13 ) MINCP stocks Bearish MINCP
Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power
making new highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 35
new
highs on NASDAQ. 16 (+4) new lows on NASDAQ Bullish.
---> 22
(-14) new
highs NYSE 8 (-10) new lows on NYSE
3/29/2012 Consider Low Priced
High Accummulation speculations in
the third wave
general market advance since 2009. Trade these with the trend of the 21-day ma of
Closing Power
3/26/2012 - Hotline
The DJI Rebounded Up Again after Testing Its
Rising Wedge
Support-Line. The operative
Peerless Sell S15 and Sell S1
Warn that a Breakdown Is Most likely.
Breakdowns usually
do follow rising wedge patterns.
The NYSE's A/D Line did weaken further today. It is sitting on its uptrend.
A break in such an
uptrend often weakens the underpinnings of the market
and most stocks start
to fall, even though the DJI may still make nominal new highs.
As long as the DJI's
Accumulation Index is falling and nearly negative, I would think any
rally will be snuffed
out. It may be different for the QQQ and SPY, which are both
stronger than the DJI.
All three still show rising Closing Power trends. Professionals
are still net buyers.
That may change next month when the institutional window-dressing-
buying is curtailed.
Certainly, I would think that there is a strong temptation
for these fund managers
to buy IBM and AAPL to show
them off in their quarterly
portfolios. I
suggested buying IBM Calls a week and a half ago. Strength tomorrow
might make a good time
to sell them.
In addition, our Low Priced speculations showing
insider buying and professional
sponsorship
and net pro-buying - as measured by Accum. Index bulges and uptrending
CLosing Powers - are
expected to be the real leaders until November. I say this, first,
because this is the
third wave of what is usually a 3-up-wave bull market and
such waves usually mean
more speculation in lower priced stocks; second, because
the risks are seen to
be small with Bernanke guaranteeing low interest rates; and
third, because, last
year brought many of these stocks down to a point where
the Public was shaken
out of most of them and now we see how well they are doing.
See the Tiger chart of these high Accumulation, low priced stocks.
DJI, Peerless Signals, Bearish Rising Wedge Pattern
and bearishly declining Tiger Accumulation index
DIA's BLUE
CLosing Power Turned Up Today
TigerSoft has two measures of a
stock's or ETF's Relative Strength
versus the DJI's Performance. Here "ITRS" plots the QQQ's percent gain
over 50-trading days minus the DJI's change over the same period.
And the Relative Strenght Quotient (RSQ) is simply QQQ/DJI with a
21-day ma and upper and lower bands. Simple
trend-breaks in these
two indicators are very useful.
The best performing stocks at the
beginning of a year in a portfolio
of similar stocks often remain the leaders. Follow the news in these on
Yahoo. RGEN leads our "for
Tony" stocks. (Tony is my excellent car
mechanic.)
RGEN's weekly TigerSoft chart now shows a very
bullish Buy B12.
See Weekly
TIger Buy B12s - Powerful Longer Term Weekly Buy B12
=====================================================================================
OLDER HOTLINES
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3/28/2011 Hotline
DJI 13126
-72 la/ma = 1.005 21dmaROC= .11 P= 54 P-Ch= -42 IP21=.027 V= -44 OP=
.008
low
BREADTH
STATISTICS:
Advance= 1142 Declines=1908 UpVol = 220 DownVol= 575
Key Stocks: AAPL
and 4 highest priced DJI stocks: IBM,
CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
130
MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks Bullish.
---> 91 ( +37 ) MINCP stocks Bearish MINCP
Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power
making new highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 35
-50 new
highs on NASDAQ. 12 (+1) new lows on NASDAQ Bullish.
---> 34
) new
highs NYSE 18 (+11) new lows on NYSE
3/28/2012 Consider Low Priced
High Accummulation speculations in
the third wave
general market advance since 2009. Trade these with the trend of the 21-day ma of
Closing Power
3/28/2012 KEY CHARTS OF INDUSTRY
INDICES
DIA
SPY QQQ
DJIA-Peerless TigerDJI TigerSPY
TigerQQQ GLD SLV Crude Oil IWM-Russell-2000
3/26/2012 - Hotline
The DJI is Again Testing Its Rising Wedge Support-Line.
Deflationary Fears Overseas and in US, too, are growing. It
is believed that the weaker non-US ETFs
offer better short sales than the DJI, Deflation is also
not a friend of Gold or Silver. And another
budgetary deadlock like last Summers will create much more
political heat. This could be a
very hot summer, quite apart from global warming. Take some
profits in some Long stocks
and do some more shorting.
The Peerless Sell S15/Sell S1
still predict a DJI
decline, probably only to the rising
65-day ma. Watch breadth. The NYSE A/D Line
uptrendline is being tested again.
A violation should bring a sharp sell-off. It will also
have a temporarily bearish
effect on the best performing stocks. DJI-30 leader, CAT,
now shows a completed
head/shoulders pattern. CAT's weakness reflects price
weakness in
food/agricultural/commodities
and earth-moving equipment used by mining companies
and in massive Public Works.
Deflation and
retrenchment are still the cries of European bankers and its many
conservative Prime Ministers. A one-day general
strike is taking in Spain today.
Spanish
General Strike Looms as Rajoy Cornered by Deficit Crisis
The
bearish head and shoulders patterns for the ETFs for Brazil and Russia show
the risks of a deeper world-wide recession are seen to be
growing. Will the US be
able to escape the trends toward deflation and higher
unemployment elsewhere?
The Republican
House today nixed Obama's new budget proposals, thereby refusing
tax
increases that would sustain Medicare. What is happening in Spain could easily
occur in the US this election year. Unusually
warm weather will allow the Occupy Wall Street
people to take to the streets before May. Another
budgetary stalemate like last year's
is also a distinct possibility. This precipitated the
16% July-August sell-off in the DJI. .
GOP-run House easily rejects bipartisan
budget
The QQQ's steep advance is still intact. AAPL rose more than 3 today, IXN (Global
Technology, too, is in a pronouncd uptrend. It's
Closing Power has been rising since
mid-December, just like QQQ's. So, any decline will
probably most heavily impact
DJI-30 stocks, the weak sectors
shown in our Industry Reports and many of the
non-US ETFs, as well as
the many Bearish MINCP Stocks we have been
using
to hedge long positions in heavily Accumulated stocks
showing very positive
Professional buying. .
CAT |
SPAIN |
BRAZIL |
RUSSIA |
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OLDER REPORTS
===================================================================================
3/27/2011 Hotline
DJI 13198
la/ma = 1.011 21dmaROC= .197 P= 96 P-Ch= -25 IP21=.008 V= -25 OP=
.082
low
BREADTH
STATISTICS:
Advance= 1258 Declines=1762 UpVol = 214.59 DownVol= 504.57
Key Stocks: AAPL
and 4 highest priced DJI stocks: IBM,
CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
263 ( -102 ) MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks Bullish.
---> 54 ( +10 ) MINCP stocks Bearish MINCP
Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power
making new highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 85
-82 new
highs on NASDAQ. 11 (+1) new lows on NASDAQ Bullish.
---> 48
(-90 ) new
highs NYSE 7 (0) new lows on NYSE
3/27/2012 Consider Low Priced
High Accummulation speculations in
the third wave
general market advance since 2009. Trade these with the trend of the 21-day ma of
Closing Power
3/27/2012 KEY CHARTS OF INDUSTRY
INDICES
DIA
SPY QQQ
DJIA-Peerless TigerDJI TigerSPY
TigerQQQ GLD SLV Crude Oil IWM-Russell-2000
Hotline The DJI is Facing
Overhead Distribution
Our Accumulation Index for the DJI has turned nearly
negative. The
Sell S15/Sell S1 still predict a DJI decline, probably only to the
rising 65-day ma.
Meanwhile, a
select group of high Accumulation secondary stocks keep
moving higher.
Their high Accumulation usually means insider buying and
also that the
stocks floating shares are more tightly held. To the extent,
institutions are
buying these stocks now, there may be some temporary quarterly
"window-dressing" buying
here, too. More importantly, the speculative buying
we see is being
boosted by the Fed's "guarantee" that the bane of over-eager
bulls will not
occur, namely a sudden steep rise in interest rates. Let's see if
we can get this
rally in secondary stocks to go on a little longer.
The DJI-30 is
another story. If the steeper CLosing Power uptrend of the DIA is broken,
shorting DIA
would seem a good idea for traders who are happy with a small
drop by the DJI
to 12750. But wait for the CP to break its uptrend. Respect the
uptrend of the
A/D Line. The next two trading days have a history since 1965
of producing a
decline 59.7% of the time. But after that, the DJI has risen 65%
of the time over
the next 10 trading days.
DIA - Rising Price-Wedge and CLosing Power
QQQ
GOLD
SILVER
CRUDE OIL
GAS
======================================================================================
OLDER HOTLINES
======================================================================================
3/26/2011 Hotline
DJI 13242
la/ma = 1.015 21dmaROC= -.236 P= 120 P-Ch= +63
IP21=.032 (low) V= -9 OP= .082
BREADTH
STATISTICS:
Advance= 2330 Declines= 740 UpVol = 635.11 DownVol= 111.16
Key Stocks: AAPL
and 4 highest priced DJI stocks: IBM,
CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
365 ( +124 )
MAXCP stocks Bullish
MAXCP Stocks Bullish.
---> 44 ( -19 ) MINCP stocks Bearish MINCP Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power
making new highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 167
+(116) new
highs on NASDAQ. 10 (+4) new lows on NASDAQ Bullish.
---> 138(+132 ) new
highs NYSE 7 (+3) new lows on NYSE
3/26/2012 Consider Low Priced
High Accummulation speculations in
the third wave
general market advance since 2009. Trade these with the trend of the 21-day ma of
Closing Power
Hotline
"DON'T FIGHT THE
FED"
The Sell S15/Sell S1 seem only able here to bring a declne to the rising
21-day ma. See how the A/D Line uptrend operated as a
high inflection point.
Once traders saw it hold, they came rushing back in to buy
again. Bernanke's
comments
today
about keeping rates low was exactly the tonic the market seems to have needed.
Bernanke stessed that the number of people working is far
below pre-collapse levels,
as are the total number of hours worked and the wages paid.
He sounded like
someone who had studied the Great Depression. To his
credit, he did not sound
anything like the typical central banker who always sees
inflation around the next
corner and invariably places top priority on fighting it
and defending his country's
currency. In this environment, I would think that
speculators will become
more aggressively long, But first the IWM
((Russell-2000) must score a new
12 month high. I do doubt that the DJI will be able
to advance much above its
rising resistance line.
For now the NYSE
A/D Line, the ratio of new highs to new lows, the
rising Closing Powers and the way MAXCPs are overwhelming
new lows all
suggest still higher DJI prices and a test by it of its
rising resistance line. I have
suggested being long the bullish MAXCP stocks and low
priced stocks showing
recent bulges of high Accumulation and insider-buying and
short some of the
bearish MINCP stocks, so long as they remain below their
Closing Power
down-trends. You can see that these low-priced, high
Accumulations stocks
are working out from in tabulated portfolio that started in early March and
from the Tiger
Index of the group, now regularly put into our key charts..
This is especially good advice in a Presidential
Election year when the the FED
Chairman is keeping rates low to boost an economic recovery
and, thereby, the political
chances of an incumbent President. The best examples
of this are 1972, 1976 and 2004.
See the charts below. Until the DJI made a clear new high
widely unconfirmed by the
A/D Line in 1972 and 1976 or the A/D Line's uptrend was
decisively broken in 1984),
it worked out best for traders to let the market run
freely. (This is exactly how a
fisherman
should play a big bass or trout way out in the middle of a
lake when the line is thin
and the hooks are small. It's Spring time; forgive
the metaphor). In this, 1972, 1976
and
2004 are the best precedents to study. The economies
were relatively strong in 1956, 1984
and 1988, while the Fed probably worked to defeat the
incumbent's party in 1960, 1980 and
2000. See below http://www.tigersoft.com/tiger-blogs/8-18-2003/index.htm
In these cases, the incumbent Presidents were are
Republicans. We might also look
again at when in the first half of a Presidential Election
year the market topped out
when a Democrat was in the White House. There are
only two cases where the
DJI rose this long into the Presdiential Election year,
1964 and 1996. In both cases
the top did not come until May.
1948 DJI fell until March 16th and then
rallied strongly for 10 weeks.
1964 DJI rallied until May 8th when A/D Line wide failed to confirm the new high.
1968 DJI fell until March 21st and then
rallied until December.
1980 DJI fell until April 21 and then rallied stronglyuntil October.
1996 DJI rallied until May 23rd.
2000 DJI fell until March 14tf and then
rallied until August,
1972 |
1976 |
2004 |
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OLDER HOTLINES
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3/23/2011
Hotline
DJI 13080 la/ma = 1.004 21dmaROC=.008 P= 57 P-Ch= -3
IP21=.0 (low) V= -31 OP=
.004
BREADTH
STATISTICS:
Advance= 2146 Declines= 880 UpVol = 524.5
DownVol= 200.92
Key Stocks: AAPL and 4 highest priced DJI stocks: IBM, CAT, CVX, MCD and XOM
--->
241 ( +64 )
MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP
Stocks Bullish.
---> 25 ( -20
) MINCP stocks
Bearish
MINCP Stocks
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new
highs.
This suggests heavy Professional Buying. Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
"bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
institutional accumulation. Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
---> 51
-(6) new
highs on NASDAQ. 6 (-4) new lows on NASDAQ Bullish.
---> 36(+5 ) new
highs NYSE 4 (-5) new lows on NYSE
3/23/2012 Consider Low Priced
High Accummulation speculations in
the third wave
general market advance since 2009. Trade these with the trend of the 21-day ma of
Closing Power
Sell S15/Sell S1 Still
Operate. Rising DJI Wedge is bearish.
Bullish Signs: Rising A/D Line. Closing Power Still Rising.
Many More MAXCP Stocks than MINCPs, so Professionals are still bullish.
High Accumulation Low Priced Stocks Are Outperforming DJI.
Low
Priced High Accummulation speculations
Conclusion: Staying hedged is our
preference by being long
Bullish MAXCP Stocks and
short Bearish MINCP Stocks .
Hotline The market turn up Friday from the support of the
rising DJI 21-day ma and
the rising A/D Line uptrendline. The operative Peerless S15
and S1 Sells still predict
a decline at these to the DJI's 65-day ma at 12800. That
the V-Indicator is now
negative and below its now falling 21-day ma is clearly bearish.
So is the DJI's
rising wedge price pattern. This shows carefully planned
distribution on strength.
If the DJI's uptrending support-line is broken, I would not think
big buyers will be able
to re-group and concentrate their buy orders until 1275-12800 is
reached.
Meanwhile, lower priced and secondary stocks are enjoying a
resurgence of
speculative interest. Profit-taking in high caps seems to
be increased funds
going into some of the less seasoned, riskier and lower priced
stocks. These
we identify by watching for bulges of high Accumulation and
strong Closing Power.
Below is an index of the stocks we identified in this way at the
beginning of the month.
You can see the DJI's decline here has had little negative
impact. Below it, see the
5-year chart of the Russell-2000. A breakout to new 5 year
highs by it would go a
long way to validate our notion the best performing secondary
stocks will be the
stars for 2012.
IWM
GOLD is back to Its 52-week ma.
SLV is below its 52-wk ma - generally this is bearish.
TRADING GLD
(GOLD-ETF)
Interest rates are falling back a little. This helps the
rally, weakens the Dollar and
that pushes up Oil, Gold and Silver. If you study GLD (ETF
for Gold), you will see since
its inception, the 14-day Stochastic
generally offers the best mechanical trading system, but it
is far from perfect. One much look for upside price
breakouts, too, which should
cause you to set asside the Stochastic. Closing Power
trend-changes work well
usually. Right now, we see a dramatic conflict between
GLD's falling Opening
Power and rising Closing Power. This generates a CPvsOpPwr
B7. Since 2005,
there have been only two clusters of GLD B7s. In one case,
GLD soared and in the
other case, it simply rallied to the upper band. When
looking at GLD, we want also
to see the weekly chart. Every decline to the rising
52-week ma since the bottom
in 2009 has been a good point to buy. But now, I am
troubled by the "hands-above-
-the-head GLD price pattern. If the neckline is broken, it will
quite bearish, showing as
it usually does, excessive public speculation.
Another point: if Gold were about to rally
strongly, one would think that Gold Stocks would be
behaving better. More than 2/3
are below their 65-day ma. They are one of the
weakest groups we follow now.
Finally, you might ask, what about Peerless. The fact
is that Peerless is only barely
profitable with Gold. Sometimes, the markets decline
and Gold rallies. Often in a
strong bull market, Gold falls.
3/23/2012 KEY CHARTS OF INDUSTRY
INDICES
DIA
SPY QQQ
DJIA-Peerless TigerDJI TigerSPY
TigerQQQ GLD SLV Crude Oil IWM-Russell-2000
DIA' s CP is uptrending There
is a minor CP downtrendline.
It would take a close of more than 0.10 ABOVE the opening to break this CP downtrend.
The Opening Power is flat. The DJI is
caught in another rising wedge price pattern.
These usually bring a downaisde break.
SPY's CP's is uptrending. It
would take a close of more than 1.1 below the
opening to break
the longer term CP uptrend. Opening
Power is back below its rising ma.
QQQ's CP is uptrending. QQQ is much
stronger than the DJI.
It will take a close of more than 0.28 BELOW the Opening to break the STEEPER CP UP-trendline.
Opening Power is uptrending. BOTH
Opening Power and Closing Power are RISING.
The QQQ is being boosted considerably by AAPL's
powerful advance.
GLD's CP is above its rising CP uptrend
The less steep CP uptrendline is far below the current CP
. Its
Opening Power is falling. Note the bearish
head/shoulder price pattern and price
downtrendline.
GLD -
Bullish: There is an extreme CLosing Power positive divergence
from prices and Opening Power. Gold is at rising 52-wk ma
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OLDER HOTLINES
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