Buy B19s without any controlling
conditions applied: 1945 to 2013
March
to October
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aprils have produced rallies in 7 of 7 cases.
But 6 of the 7 occurred with the DJI below the 21-day ma.
4/16/2013 1.011 .198 110 102 110 .125 -59 .109 .088 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 6/12/2012 good 1.01 -.236 -147 112 -147 -.013 -148 -.295 -.029 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 4/11/2012 rally to 1.7% band .976 -.140 -156 96 -156 .02 -100 -.07 .035 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 3/7/2012 rally to 1.7% band .994 -.007 23 108 23 .042 -.68 .137 ---- ------------------------------------------------------------------ 10/26/2011 declined below lower band in 6 weeks 1.045 .714 353 -4 352 .098 40 .152 -.055 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 7/19/2011 declined way below lower band in 2 months 1.018 .562 321 48 320 .104 -41 .076 .024 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 3/17/2011 very good signal .973 -.444 -68 100 -68 .009 -218 -.073 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 7/22/2010 3% rally and then decline to lower band. 1.022 .034 175 195 170 .075 -126 -.045 -.079 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 6/2/2010 3% decline and then rally to upper band .982 -1.025 -487 26 -473 -.008 -476 -.435 -.016 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 10/29/2009 rallies above upper band 1.01 .302 -44 114 -41 .033 -178 -.005 .091 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 8/12/2009 rallied steadily higher 1.03 1.319 699 9 652 .231 213 .325 .102 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 5/18/2009 rallied 3% and then declined to lower band 1.033 .54 334 63 311 -.005 -11 .045 .069 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 4/21/2009 DJI rallied above the upper band. 1.011 1.048 544 158 507 .159 145 .241 -.031 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 9/18/2008 DJI collapsed two days later .972 -.345 -206 143 -186 .037 -147 .200 -.108 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 7/29/2008 2% rally and then collapse 1.008 .054 -183 122 -165 .033 -194 .149 -.135 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 3/10/2008 rally above upper band .987 -.024 -238 130 -215 .047 -181 -.057 ---- ----------------------------------------------------------------- 8/29/2007 DJI rallied past upper band 1.004 .07 -69 139 -63 .053 -157 -.038 -.018 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 6/8/2007 DJI rallied to upper band .995 .054 -98 21 -88 -.005 -120 .031 .092 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 5/11/2007 3% rally 1.02 .707 235 34 212 .184 51 .597 .049 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 3/6/2007 excellent point to buy .974 -.423 -21 80 -.19 -.023 -254 -.099 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 5/31/2006 DJI fell 5% .985 -.184 -134 93 -.123 -.023 -263 .116 .006 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 10/28/2005 excellent place to buy 1.007 -.173 -348 11 -469 -.109 -295 -.25 -.03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 4/20/2005 6% rally .964 -.633 -240 -15 -323 -.244 -315 -.266 -.054 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 3/12/2004 3% decline and then 5% rally .97 -.56 17 11 16 -.166 -229 -.332 ---- ------------------------------------------------------------------- 3/25/2003 3% decline and then rally above upper band 1.045 .635 147 123 142 .184 27 .384 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 8/6/2002 rally to upper band .982 -1.407 -480 100 -480 -.054 -485 -.403 -.216 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 4/5/1994 4% rally .968 -.491 -301 66 -475 .011 -41 -.107 -.022 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9/27/1987 rally to upper band .988 -.646 -240 22 -473 -.146 -30 -.30 .059 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4/15/1987 rally to upper band .979 -.009 -198 5 -389 .08 -15 .208 .119 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9/28/1981 rally to upper band .983 -.645 -302 43 -524 -.078 -11 -.234 -.188 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9/30/1980 rally to upper band .985 -.002 -6 30 -12 -.01 -1 .122 .054 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6/1/1967 rally above upper band .981 -.359 -122 15 -305 -.034 -4 -.181 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 4/11/1967 rally slightly past upper band .983 -.012 -17 3 -41 -.027 -2 -.024 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 10/2/1956 rallly past upper band .965 -.641 -164 8 -521 -.098 -435 -.368 -.038 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 5/29/1956 rally past upper band .963 -.918 -161 35 -512 -.220 -501 -.586 -.016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 3/10/1955 4% decline and then strong rally .987 .032 50 51 143 -.05 -96 .22 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 5/2/1952 perfect signal at bottom .994 -.318 -142 28 -524 -.035 -285 -281 -.055 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6/28/1950 7% decline before strong rally .965 -.417 -66 21 -238 -.011 -335 -.035 .026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9/21/1949 perfect buy 1.00 -.033 32 34 128 .1 -5 .005 .081 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9/9/1948 3% decline and then rally to upper band .989 .02 70 63 298 .11 17 -.037 -.066 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4/21/1947 3% rally and then 5% decline .976 -404 -193 33 -426 -.177 -177 -.109 -.015 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ===========================================================================
Buy B19s without any controlling
conditions applied: 1945 to 2013
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What happens when DJI is 0.5% to 2.0% above 21-day ma?
cases
good outcome
bad
outcome
6/12/2012
1.01
7/19/2011
1.018
10/29/2009
1.01
4/21/2009
1.011
5/11/2007
1.02
7/29/2008
1.008
10/28/2005
1.007
What happens when DJI is below 21-day ma?
Aprils
are successful in 6 of 6 cases.
Rally (19)
Decline
(7)
4/11/2012
6/2/2010
3/7/2012
9/18/2008
3/17/2011
5/31/2006
6/8/2007
3/12/2004
3/6/2007
3/10/1955
4/20/2005
6/28/1950
8/6/2002
9/29/1948
4/15/1994
9/27/1987
4/15/1987
9/21/1981
9/30/1980
6/1/1987
4/11/1967
10/2/1956
5/29/1956
5/2/1952
9/29/1949
4/21/1947
4/16/2013 1.011 .198 110 102 110 .125 -59 .109 .088 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 6/12/2012 good 1.01 -.236 -147 112 -147 -.013 -148 -.295 -.029 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 4/11/2012 rally to 1.7% band .976 -.140 -156 96 -156 .02 -100 -.07 .035 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 3/7/2012 rally to 1.7% band .994 -.007 23 108 23 .042 -.68 .137 ---- ------------------------------------------------------------------ 10/26/2011 declined below lower band in 6 weeks 1.045 .714 353 -4 352 .098 40 .152 -.055 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 7/19/2011 declined way below lower band in 2 months 1.018 .562 321 48 320 .104 -41 .076 .024 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 3/17/2011 very good signal .973 -.444 -68 100 -68 .009 -218 -.073 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 7/22/2010 3% rally and then decline to lower band. 1.022 .034 175 195 170 .075 -126 -.045 -.079 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 6/2/2010 3% decline and then rally to upper band .982 -1.025 -487 26 -473 -.008 -476 -.435 -.016 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 10/29/2009 rallies above upper band 1.01 .302 -44 114 -41 .033 -178 -.005 .091 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 8/12/2009 rallied steadily higher 1.03 1.319 699 9 652 .231 213 .325 .102 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 5/18/2009 rallied 3% and then declined to lower band 1.033 .54 334 63 311 -.005 -11 .045 .069 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 4/21/2009 DJI rallied above the upper band. 1.011 1.048 544 158 507 .159 145 .241 -.031 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 9/18/2008 DJI collapsed two days later .972 -.345 -206 143 -186 .037 -147 .200 -.108 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 7/29/2008 2% rally and then collapse 1.008 .054 -183 122 -165 .033 -194 .149 -.135 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 3/10/2008 rally above upper band .987 -.024 -238 130 -215 .047 -181 -.057 ---- ----------------------------------------------------------------- 8/29/2007 DJI rallied past upper band 1.004 .07 -69 139 -63 .053 -157 -.038 -.018 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 6/8/2007 DJI rallied to upper band .995 .054 -98 21 -88 -.005 -120 .031 .092 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 5/11/2007 3% rally 1.02 .707 235 34 212 .184 51 .597 .049 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 3/6/2007 excellent point to buy .974 -.423 -21 80 -.19 -.023 -254 -.099 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 5/31/2006 DJI fell 5% .985 -.184 -134 93 -.123 -.023 -263 .116 .006 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 10/28/2005 excellent place to buy 1.007 -.173 -348 11 -469 -.109 -295 -.25 -.03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 4/20/2005 6% rally .964 -.633 -240 -15 -323 -.244 -315 -.266 -.054 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 3/12/2004 3% decline and then 5% rally .97 -.56 17 11 16 -.166 -229 -.332 ---- ------------------------------------------------------------------- 3/25/2003 3% decline and then rally above upper band 1.045 .635 147 123 142 .184 27 .384 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 8/6/2002 rally to upper band .982 -1.407 -480 100 -480 -.054 -485 -.403 -.216 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 4/5/1994 4% rally .968 -.491 -301 66 -475 .011 -41 -.107 -.022 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9/27/1987 rally to upper band .988 -.646 -240 22 -473 -.146 -30 -.30 .059 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4/15/1987 rally to upper band .979 -.009 -198 5 -389 .08 -15 .208 .119 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9/28/1981 rally to upper band .983 -.645 -302 43 -524 -.078 -11 -.234 -.188 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9/30/1980 rally to upper band .985 -.002 -6 30 -12 -.01 -1 .122 .054 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6/1/1967 rally above upper band .981 -.359 -122 15 -305 -.034 -4 -.181 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 4/11/1967 rally slightly past upper band .983 -.012 -17 3 -41 -.027 -2 -.024 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 10/2/1956 rallly past upper band .965 -.641 -164 8 -521 -.098 -435 -.368 -.038 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 5/29/1956 rally past upper band .963 -.918 -161 35 -512 -.220 -501 -.586 -.016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 3/10/1955 4% decline and then strong rally .987 .032 50 51 143 -.05 -96 .22 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 5/2/1952 perfect signal at bottom .994 -.318 -142 28 -524 -.035 -285 -281 -.055 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6/28/1950 7% decline before strong rally .965 -.417 -66 21 -238 -.011 -335 -.035 .026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9/21/1949 perfect buy .999 -.033 32 34 128 .1 -5 .005 .081 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9/9/1948 3% decline and then rally to upper band .989 .02 70 63 298 .11 17 -.037 -.066 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4/21/1947 3% rally and then 5% decline .976 -404 -193 33 -426 -.177 -177 -.109 -.015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------