and Channel Breakout Failures:
1915-2012
28 cases:
7 Rallies of 5% or more without a pullback below point of breakout:
Oct 1915, July 1927, August 1928, May 1954, Nov 1985, Jan 1987, Apr 1995
4 Rallies of 3%-4% without a pullback to point of breakout:
Oct 1925, Feb 1964, Jan 1989, May 2007
4 Small declines under 3% and bigger rally.
May 1945, March 1986, Aug 1989, March 1998
versus
6 False breakouts and declines of 8% or more:
Oct 1963, May 1965, May 1967, Aug 1987, Feb 1994,
4 3%-5% decline before bigger rally
May 1935 , July 1955, Jan 1959, Jan 1989,
Breakout Rally*
^ Oct 1915 +9%-10%
) Oct 1925 +3%-4%
^ July 1927 >10% rally after pullback to point of breakout.
^ August 1928 >10% rally without pullback.
May 1935 2% rally, 5% pullback and a big >10% rally.
May 1945 False breakout followed by small whipsaws but upward trend.
Mid-1949-50 price channel lasts a year without a breakout.
^ May 1954 >10% rally after brief pullback to point of breakout.
Nov 1954 >10% rally without much pullback.
July 1955 2% rally, 4% pullback and then 10% rally.
January 1959 2% rally, 3% pullback and upwards channel resumes.
* October 1963 False breakout and 8% pullback followed by recovery and 10% rally.
) Feb 1964 4% rally followed by pullback to point of breakout and 10% rally.
* May 1965 False breakout and 10% pullback.
* May 1967 False breakout and 8% pullback
December 1971 2% decline followed by 10% rally.
November 1985 >10% rally.
March 1986 2% decline followed by 8% rally
^ January 1987 >10% rally.
* August 1987 False breakout and 37% decline.
) January 1989 4% rally, 5% pullback and then >10% rally.
August 1989 2% decline followed by 6% rally.
* February 1994 False breakout and 10% decline.
> April 1995 >10% rally
February 1996 Whipsaws up and down followed.
* August 1987 False breakout and 37% decline.
November 1996 False breakout and 5% decline.
March 1998 Hesitation for a month and then 5% rally.
December 2003 5% rally and then 10% decline over 10 months.
) May 2007 4% rally and then 10% decline
